PRODUCER’S PERSPECTIVE Ken Davenport, Broadway Producer, Off-Broadway, Theater

A gross statistical seasonal wrap up. Part II

We now return to our regularly schedule program.

Two days ago I promised to break down the last 11 weeks of the season as compared the same 11 weeks in '08 to see how much of a bite the icky economy was taking out of our biz.  

As you may remember, we examined the grosses for the first 10 weeks of this year in this post, and came to the conclusion that we were 7.85% down from last year, and attendance was off a whopping 14.63%.  

How have we done since then?

In the next 11 weeks, our grosses are down only 3.89% over the prior year and our attendance is down 5.3%.  So, we're catching up and closing the gap, slowly but surely.

That brings the '09 totals so far to 5.87% down from last year in gross sales and 9.97% down from last year in attendance.

But what will the summer bring?  

And more importantly, the spread between the gross and the attendance figures is what I find most alarming, as I discussed in Wednesday's post.

Looking at the grosses over a 10-12 week period has been fun (insert chants of "Geek!  Geek!" here), so we're going to continue to do it.  And since the rest of the biz world does quarterly reports, why shouldn't we?

Every 13 weeks, starting with week #1 of the new Broadway season (this week), I'll look at the numbers and compare them to the prior year(s).  

Who knows, maybe we'll get really fancy and start making estimated earnings predictions just like publicly traded companies (insert wedgie along with chant of "Geek!" here)!

See you in 13.

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The theater bloggers of the world have spoken . . .

Remember that time when all of the theater bloggers got in a room at Planet Hollywood to blab about blogging?

Well, we did more than chat and eat chicken crunch that day.  In fact, that was the very first meeting of the ITBA, or Independent Theater Bloggers Association, a group of the most passionate theater bloggers on the web.

The bloggers in that room knew that the online media world was changing with every keystroke, especially since every day we seem to lose another theatrical writer from the traditional media world.  Therefore, we felt it was important to gather together formally in order to provide some organization to the ever-evolving theatrical blogoshpere.

We also wanted to recognize excellence in the three distinct areas of the theater that we write about:  Broadway, Off-Broadway and Off-Off Broadway.

So, the ITBA was formed and today, it announced the winners of the 2008-2009 ITBA Awards for Excellence in seven categories. 

Visit the website today to see the winners, but make sure you check back in a few weeks.  In true new media style, we're not having an actual awards ceremony . . . we're going to have a virtual one.  We'll be posting video acceptance speeches shortly.

Congrats to the winners!

To learn more about the ITBA, visit www.TheaterBloggers.com.

Oh, and I know I promised another blog about the recent Broadway season for today, but we had to interrupt the previously scheduled program for the above special announcement.  More data about the last 11 weeks of Broadway grosses tomorrow.

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A gross statistical seasonal wrap up. Part I

The official Broadway season finished up on Sunday, and with that comes the release of the highly anticipated season stats.

How did Broadway do during the last 12 months?

Total gross was $943.3 million, up 5.8 million or an itsy-bitsy .6% from last year's tally of $937.5 million.  Not so bad, in light of the current economic climate (my favorite hackneyed expression). 

But don't stop at the dollars.  Let's look deeper.

Attendance at Broadway houses was 12.15 million, down 120k or 1% from the prior year's 12.27 million.

So there was more cash in the till, thanks to our usual increase in full price tickets, no doubt, but our audience got smaller.

Should we celebrate?  Or should be be concerned?

While I am thrilled that we managed to pull out a squeaker last year, despite a gas crisis, a stock market crisis, and a credit crisis, and a crisis on the overuse of the word crisis, there's a trend emerging that has me a bit on edge.

As I wrote about in this post regarding whether or not discounts are eroding our full price sales, we've been on an attendance plateau of the last 8 years, despite an increasing gross.  And this year that trend continued, as we slipped backwards another 1% in attendance, while the gross barely inched forward.  

But more importantly, this is the second slip in attendance we've had in a row.  

In the 25 years of seasonal statistics available, a decrease in attendance over 2 seasons has only happened once before.  The last time we've seen this sort of negative pattern started with the 1988-'89 season . . .  and continued for three seasons in a row.

And I'll predict that in the upcoming season, 2009-'10, we will see yet another decline in attendance.

While it is true that one of the current 'seasons of slippage' included the stagehands strike when we went dark for 19 days, which explains the drop that season . . . how do we explain how we've fallen from there???  

In my opinion, these statistics and this trending plateau are continued evidence that we've hit a ceiling for the Broadway audience.  My concern is that if the attendance remains flat (or slips), and our expenses increase (which they automatically do, thanks to labor contracts, etc.), it means that prices must go higher in order for shows to operate.  We all know that the answer to economic challenges can never be as simple as raising prices, which could lead to even more attendance attrition, etc.

These trends mean that just as every other industry in America is examining how they operate efficiently in this new economy, we must do the same . . . or our real crisis may be yet to come.

We can break through this ceiling. There is more growth that can occur.  But just like the last steps up a mountain, it is going to require a new set of tools and a lot more effort than ever before.

Tomorrow we're going to break down the last 11 weeks of the season, to see if we can make a prognosis for the summer tourist traffic.

Until then . . .

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Broadway Grosses w/e 5/24/09

Show Name	Gross
33 VARIATIONS	$236,250
9 TO 5	$805,908
ACCENT ON YOUTH	$152,743
AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY	$196,533
AVENUE Q	$290,542
BILLY ELLIOT: THE MUSICAL	$1,173,790
BLITHE SPIRIT	$591,570
CHICAGO	$564,982
DESIRE UNDER THE ELMS	$346,570
EXIT THE KING	$486,489
GOD OF CARNAGE	$854,862
GUYS AND DOLLS	$496,935
HAIR	$930,263
IN THE HEIGHTS	$774,972
IRENA'S VOW	$177,701
JERSEY BOYS	$1,041,387
JOE TURNER'S COME AND GONE	$256,298
MAMMA MIA!	$894,070
MARY POPPINS	$778,623
MARY STUART	$320,683
NEXT TO NORMAL	$337,306
REASONS TO BE PRETTY	$176,152
ROCK OF AGES	$450,676
SHREK THE MUSICAL	$770,039
SOUTH PACIFIC	$869,244
THE 39 STEPS	$168,193
THE LION KING	$1,118,909
THE LITTLE MERMAID	$775,764
THE NORMAN CONQUESTS	$304,815
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA	$810,280
THE PHILANTHROPIST	$183,997
WAITING FOR GODOT	$415,610
WEST SIDE STORY	$1,244,810
WICKED	$1,416,179

The game on Broadway has changed.

And by game, I mean traffic.  And by Broadway, I mean the actual street.

The picture in this post is of Broadway (que Ripley).  Those are chairs down there.  And people sitting in them . . . in the middle of the street, where taxi cabs and City Sights buses once fought for the same slice of the street.

No more, thanks to Mayor Bloomberg.  Traffic is now closed on Broadway from 47th to 42nd street and the street is a a big pedestrian mall.  

And since a chunk of that real estate saddles up against the TKTS booth, you can bet that it's going to affect ticket sales. But how?

• There will be more room for pedestrians to walk, talk and interact, therefore the importance of a great street team is even greater than it has been in the last 12 months.  
• The importance and value of outdoor advertising in Times Square (billboards, etc.)  just went up, as more pedestrians should flock to the area (and if those chairs stay, so will the pedestrians, soaking up a much stronger impression from that advertising).  
• How people physically approach the booth is going to change, and so should booth business, as more people will be simply walking closer to it.  More people in closer proximity puts more pressure on the the booth promoter for your show (yes, I'm sorry to say, but those many people that stand by the TKTS boards and shout, "Any questions?  Anyone need help," are actually being paid by specific shows to "guide" you towards the right decision (which is the the show they are being paid by). 

The environment has changed.

And that means there's a new opportunity.  It's your job to find it.  

(BTW, I'm predicting grassed over streets in Times Square in 10 years or less.  And nothing will make me happier.  Thanks, Bloomie.  I'm sorry your congestion pricing didn't pass, but this is a great alternative.)

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A Graphic Design book about Broadway.

I e-stumbled upon a nugget of an interview recently with Barry Weissler, the Producer of the phenom known as Chicago, and Drew Hodges, the head of Spotco, one of the powerhouses in the theatrical advertising world, which handles Chicago.

What's interesting about this interview is that it's not in the theatre section of the NY Times. It's not on Broadway.com or in American Theatre. It's from a book called The Graphic Designer's Guide to Clients:  How to Make Clients Happy and Do Great Work by Ellen Shapiro.

What's also interesting is that the interview was done years ago, and features questions like, "How important is it for a show to have a website today?" as well as insights into how both Drew and Barry, two of the best in the biz, approach the creation of art for a show.  

And with Google Books, you can read it without buying it.  

Read here.  (p. 171)

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Do Tony Nominators and Voters really forget the fall?

No one denies that this has been an extraordinary season on Broadway, considering the economic shite-storm the world has been walking through for the past six months.

With so many great productions and so many great actors on the boards, the potential nominees for this year's Tony Awards were plentiful.  Yet several industry vets are still wondering how a few standout productions and performances were left off the list.

What happened to The Seagull?  And Kristin Scott Thomas?  All My Sons?  Should Equus have been been nominated?  Daniel Radcliffe?  TOS?

As I heard more and more folks ranting about what productions and people were snubbed, I noticed a trend.  Most of the slights were from shows that opened in the Fall.

That begged the question . . . do you stand a better chance of winning a Tony if your show opens in the Spring versus the Fall? (Spring = 1/1 - Tony Cutoff.  Fall = Tony Cutoff - 12/31.)

I dove into IBDB.com and TonyAwards.com to see if there was a seasonal advantage, and here's what I found out. 

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 65% of the winners of the Best Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 60% of the winners of the Best Play Tony opened in the Spring.

Over the past 15 years (the revival categories are only 15 years old) . . .

• 67% of the winners of the Best Revival of a Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 87% of the winners of the Best Revival of a Play Tony opened in the Spring.

On average, that means 70% of the Tony Award winners in these four major categories period were Spring productions.

There's an argument to open when the leaves are coming back on the trees, don't you think?

I know what you're thinking . . . more shows open in the Spring, so of course the Spring produces more winners, right?

Wrong.

Over the past 20 years, 51% of Broadway shows opened in the Fall versus 49% in the Spring!

Now do you believe there's an advantage?

But wait . . . just like on a TV commercial for the slice-o-matic, there's more!

I also looked at the nominees for these awards.  Does opening in the Spring not only give you a better shot at winning, but also a better shot at getting nominated?

Results, please . . . 

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 64% of the nominees for the Best Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 72% of the nominees for the Best Play Tony opened in the Spring.

Over the past 15 years . . .

• 60% of the nominees for the Best Revival of a Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 68% of the nominees for the Best Revival of a Play Tony opened in the Spring.

That means 66% of all the Tony Award nominees in these categories were Spring productions.

Shall we give you a another slice-o-matic for the same price?

What about actors and actresses?  Does the time of opening affect the performance awards as well?  Would Kristin and Daniel have been more likely to get nominated if they opened post January 1?

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 62.5% of the winners of the Best Actor/Actress in a Musical Tony were from Spring shows.
• 75% of the winners for the Best Actor/Actress in a Play were from Spring shows.

That's 68.75% of all the top performance Tony Awards given to actors and actresses in Spring productions.

What about nominations?

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 60% of the nominees for the Best Actor/Actress in a Musical Tony were from Spring shows.
• 71% of the nominees for the Best Actor/Actress in a Play were from Spring shows.

What does all this mean?  And why does it happen?

My conclusion is pretty simple:  nominators and voters are human.  They are subject to the same laws of advertising and marketing that we all are.  Shows that are running and being advertised and in the press and being talked about by their families are just more "top of mind" (the goal of advertisers) than shows that have closed, and haven't had a dime of marketing spent on them in months.  It's not a conscious decision on their part to give a slight advantage to shows that just opened.  It's just what happens . . . and now we have the numbers to prove it.  

Open in the Fall and there is a statistical disadvantage to being part of the Tony club.

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Email gets us off the hook from taking the phone off the hook.

Admit it.

When faced with getting in touch with someone you weren't so confident about talking to, how many times have you said:  "Oh, I'll just send them an email," when maybe calling would have been better, faster, and/or more personal?

Let's face it . . . while I wouldn't trade email for a million and a half dollars, it has trained us all to be more passive and, well, lazy.  I'd even argue that email has been detrimental to developing good negotiating skills (it's easy to ask for something when you don't have to hear the response instantly.  It's easy to say no to something, when you're rejecting someone cyber-ally).

Emailing someone also makes us feel like we're accomplishing something without ever knowing if we really are.  I feel better when I push that send button, making inquiries, checking on status, etc., but should I?

When you send an email and no one responds, is that really communication?

We took a poll at my office, and we all agreed that email has made it harder for us to pick up the phone with certain parties.  Why put yourself in a situation where you might be uncomfortable, if you can just "send an email" instead.

So at DTE, we have a new rule.  Every day, we make one phone call. . . that we don't want to make.  It's a variance on the famed "Do One Thing A Day To Accomplish Your Goal" treatise, but the difference is, this is something we specifically don't want to do.  

When we feel that pang in our gut that indicates we're trying to weasle out of some direct communication that would probably serve us better and get us what we want faster, that's when we pick up the phone.

Email is awesome.  It's a form of technology that makes our lives a heck of a lot easier.  Kind of like the remote control.  But at times, like the remote, it may not be very healthy.

Pick up the phone.  The people you don't want to call, are the exact people you should be calling.  

And the moment you start doing it, I guarantee your phone will start ringing in return.

And that's when the fun really begins.

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I'm a celebrity, so see this show.

A few weeks ago, our President urged citizens to buy cars.  American cars.

And guess what?

The day after the speech, Chrysler sold more cars. 

The endorsement is an age-old advertising trick that takes advantage of the Cialdini-styled social proof in all of us.  Put a well respected politician, athlete, or doctor, etc. right next to a product, and let the influence take over.  Tiger Woods appears in ads for Accenture.  Jared, the miracle dieter, sold Subway sandwiches.  And Bob Dole pitched for Viagra.

It works.  Don't you want to be like Mike?  Just wear these sneakers!  Want skin like Scarlett's?  Use this make-up. 

Want to #$@ like Bob Dole?  (Ok, I just threw up in my mouth.)

If endorsements work so well, why haven’t we seen more of them in the theater?

Could an email blast from Stephen Sondheim help sell a struggling new show by an up and coming composer?  Could a TV commercial with Kristin Chenoweth sell a musical comedy?

What about Nathan Lane and Faith Prince selling the new Guys and Dolls revival? 

Would the expense of the endorsement be worth it?  Could we afford it? 

There's only one way to find out.  And it wouldn't even have to be the President for me to pay for it.

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Overheard at Angus: Volume IV

There I sat at a local theater watering hole, pondering my Tony picks, when I noticed a pretty high-powered agent and a pretty high powered Producer, sitting down to share a drink and some dirt.

The Producer was off to see a play.  The agent had seen it.  And . . . scene:

Producer:  Listen, I've gotta run.  I'm seeing XXXXX tonight.

Agent:  Oh yeah?  I saw it last week.

Producer:  Any good?

Agent:  The performances are excellent.

Producer:  Oh.

Agent:  What?

Producer:  You ever been set up on a blind date?

Agent:  Sure.

Producer:  I asked you if you thought the show was any good.  You told me the the performances were excellent.

Agent:  So?

Producer:  That's like saying someone has a good personality when I ask what they look like. 

And . . . scene.

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