My 2012 Tony Nomination Predictions are . . .

When this blog goes live, 35 very smart and very fancy men and women of the theater will be holed up at the world famous Edison Cafe, deciding who and what will be nominated for a Tony Award this year.

Don’t believe me?  Take a stroll by the Cafe on Monday . . . you’ll see the windows covered up, and you’ll see bouncers at the door, only allowing those that have earned the right to be an all-powerful Tony Nominator.

It’s one of those cool theatrical traditions that make our industry interesting and fun.  We’re not an industry of conference rooms.  We’re an industry of dining rooms.

Very few people will ever know exactly what goes on behind those papered walls.  But that doesn’t stop people from trying to predict what the outcome will be.

Including me!

I post my predictions every year, but only in the big categories of Best Musical, Best Play, Best Revival of a Musical and Best Revival of a Play.

Ready to hear what I think will happen?

Best Musical

Once
Newsies
Nice Work If You Can Get It

And . . .

Boy this fourth spot is always the tricky wicket.  While Spider-Man has proven itself to be a juggernaut, crushing bad press and lawsuits in its path with its $1mm (and sometimes $2mm) grosses, I think its success will cause some Nominator backlash, and they’ll leave it off the list.  That leaves Ghost, Leap of Faith, Lysistrata Jones and Bonnie and Clyde.  A week ago I was going to say Ghost.  But, I’ve changed my movie-to-musical tune.  I think that the Nominators are going to go with the non-star driven, original American musical and give it to . . .

Lysistrata Jones

Best Play

There are 15 suckers eligible for this award this year (who said new plays are dead?), and only 4 slots (can we say, “expand the category to five, please?”).

Clybourne Park
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher

And another tough call for the fourth position.  Since One Man Two Guvnors is now a “new play” instead of a revival, it really mucks up the waters.  But at the end of the “play”, my money is on another home grown piece of work . . .

Seminar

Best Revival of a Musical

Alright, well, this one is close to my heart, so let’s hit it:

Evita
Follies
Porgy & Bess

And . . . honestly, I wouldn’t be objective (which is such a big part of being a producer) if I didn’t admit that the fourth spot was a battle between the two Jesus musicals. :-)  Godspell versus Jesus Christ Superstar.  Godspell has been a bit neglected by the other Awards committees, which has me a bit confused and concerned for tomorrow’s announcement.  But Superstar has been done before, and Andrew Lloyd Webber already has a show on the slate above.  And, objectively again, I believe that the Godspell creative team deserves some kudos for their incredibly inventive updating of a forty year old musical.  So, I’m going to follow the advice that Mrs. Puccio gave to me my junior year of high school when I was running for Student Council Vice President (“Don’t be stupid.  Vote for yourself!”), and I’m going to say . . .

Godspell

Best Revival of a Play

This category has only one nomination lock in my book, which is also most likely the lock to win.

Death of a Salesman

So what will fill the other three slots?  Tough to call, but I’m going to go with:

The Best Man
A Streetcar Named Desire
Wit


What do you think?  Do you agree?  Disagree?  What do you think are going to be the big nominees tomorrow?  Comment below!  And tune in on Tuesday to see how both you and I scored!

 

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