Who will win the 2012-13 Tony Awards? My predictions, yours, and a Psychic’s . . . revealed!

Oh man, it’s so dang exciting!  Just 48 hours until Broadway’s big day, when a whole bunch of artists’ dreams will come true, and salary quotes will go up.

But who will be taking home the gold?

That’s what we’re talking today.  Cuz it’s time for my annual predictions of who is going to win this year’s Tony Awards!

In addition to my predictions for each of the Tony categories, I’m also going to tell you who YOU think is going to win – by looking at the stats from my Tony Pool entries and revealing who the majority of you think will be making a big speech on Sunday night.

And if that isn’t enough . . . this year, I’m proud to welcome back to the blog, Miss Rose!  That’s right, our favorite 49th St. Storefront Psychic is back.  For $50, Miss Rose consulted her Ouija board to give us her picks for this year’s Tony Winners.

Enough chitter-chatter, let’s see who you, me, and darling Miss Rose (I mean, you do see the Gyspy irony, right?) chose!

BEST PLAY

Nominees:  The Assembled Parties, Lucky Guy, The Testament of Mary, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

While Lucky Guy is a serious sentimental favorite since its very well liked Author, Nora Ephron, is no longer with us, I don’t think it can catch Durang’s late season entry.  As one industry vet told me, “They’re going to have to change the seats at the Golden Theatre, because Vanya and Sonia has everyone peeing with laughter.”

Gross, but true.

MY PREDICTION:  Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

YOUR PREDICTION: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

BEST MUSICAL

Nominees:  Bring it On, A Christmas Story, Kinky Boots, Matilda

Oooooh man, this is what it’s all about.  When the season started everyone thought Matilda was a lock for the big prize.  It had a mammoth advance.  It had major buzz.  And it already had a Times review in its pocket.

Even I was giving Matilda odds to win Best Musical.  In fact, I told all of my investors when I was raising money for Kinky Boots last fall that we weren’t the favorite . . . but that I would rather put my money on a longer shot, because if we came up a winner, our payoff would be much bigger.

Flash forward a few months, and well, Kinky Boots is outgrossing Matilda, and audiences, while enjoying the British import, aren’t going as wild as they thought they would after all that hype (note to Producers out there – perhaps coming in as a sleeper has an advantage?).   Matilda also didn’t make a lot of friends when she came to town.   And the American born, home town favorite, Kinky Boots, has a lot more voters on its Producing team.

It’s a nail biter for sure, but I’m putting my boots down.

MY PREDICTION:  Kinky Boots

YOUR PREDICTION: Matilda

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Bring it On

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Joseph Robinette (A Christmas Story), Harvey Fierstein (Kinky Boots), Dennis Kelly (Matilda), Douglas Carter Beane (Cinderella)

This is where voters will spread some love around.  Look for Matilda’s Dennis Kelly to take home the prize.  It’s great work, no doubt, but part of this win will be to honor the show, and its original author Roald Dahl.

MY PREDICTION: Dennis Kelly (Matilda)

YOUR PREDICTION: Dennis Kelly (Matilda)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Douglas Carter Beane (Cinderella)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (A Christmas Story), Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green (Hands on a Hardbody), Cyndi Lauper (Kinky Boots), Tim Minchin (Matilda)

I love me some Tim Minchin, ever since he and I shared a theater at New World Stages when My First Time was still running, and he brought his musical stand-up show to the states for the first time.  I even chased him for a year trying to get him to write a musical for me.

But as much as I love Tim, the voters will love Cyndi more.  How can you not?  She’s a pop icon that has been flirting with our community for years (anyone see her flash her stuff at Broadway Bares a few years ago for charity?), and now she’s a full fledged member of our club thanks to her fantastic score.

Cyndi will be “having fun” on Sunday night, and I mean, come on, her speech and outfit are bound to be worth the votes alone.

MY PREDICTION:  Cyndi Lauper (Kinky Boots)

YOUR PREDICTION: Cyndi Lauper (Kinky Boots)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green (Hands on a Hardbody)

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Nominees: Golden Boy, Orphans, The Trip to Bountiful, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Despite the controversy over illicit materials the show sent out to voters as a part of its lobbying campaign, and despite the fact it opened in the fall and closed this winter, the Woolf will lead the pack.

MY PREDICTION:  Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

YOUR PREDICTION: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Annie, The Mystery of Edwin Drood, Pippin, Cinderella

I’m still smarting over the fact that Godspell wasn’t nominated last year.  But voters will make up for it this year, by giving the trophy to another Schwartz show, and deservedly so.

MY PREDICTION:  Pippin

YOUR PREDICTION: Pippin

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Cinderella

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy), Nathan Lane (The Nance), Tracy Letts (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf), David Hyde Pierce (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike), Tom Sturridge (Orphans)

I’ve still gotta ask . . . where the eff is Alan Cumming?  I mean really?  Ok, I’m done.  Moving on.

A lot of deserving folks in this category, no doubt.  But Nathan has won before.  And Tracy has won before (for writing August Osage County – can this guy be more talented?) and his show will already have taken home a prize (see above).  This one will go to the Hollywood superstar . . . just like it did when Scarlett Johansson took home the prize a few years ago for A View From The Bridge.  It’s a “Thank you for coming to our town and bringing your name and fans with you and we weren’t sure if you were going to be any good but you were really, really good, and we’d like to say thank you with this award” award.

MY PREDICTION:  Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy)

YOUR PREDICTION: Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Laurie Metcalf (The Other Place), Amy Morton (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?), Kristine Nielsen (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike), Holland Taylor (Ann), Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)

You know who voters like?  Kids at the beginning of their careers, and our veterans who are towards the end of their careers.  They also like people who give great performances.  And that’s why . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Cicely Tyson (A Trip to Bountiful)

YOUR PREDICTION: Cicely Tyson (A Trip to Bountiful)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Cicely Tyson (A Trip to Bountiful)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Bertie Carvel (Matilda), Santino Fontana (Cinderella), Rob McClure (Chaplin), Billy Porter (Kinky Boots), Stark Sands (Kinky Boots)

This one could keep more people at Radio City on the edge of their seats than any of the other awards.  Which drag performance will it be?  The Brit, Bertie Carvel, or the soulful singin’ Billy Porter.

Bertie’s performance is one to see, no question, but he won’t best Billy this year.  Billy is a beloved member of our community that has been at this for a couple of decades . . . but has never had a chance to shine like this . . . and shine he does.  And how many opportunities does such a unique talent like Billy get to do what he does better than anyone else?  The voters will take all this into consideration and he’ll walk home a winner.

Don’t cry for Bertie Carvel.  He’ll be back.

MY PREDICTION:  Billy Porter (Kinky Boots)

YOUR PREDICTION: Billy Porter (Kinky Boots)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Bertie Carvel (Matilda)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Stephanie J. Block (The Mystery of Edwin Drood), Carolee Carmello (Scandalous), Valisia LeKae (Motown), Patina Miller (Pippin), Laura Osnes (Cinderella)

While I’d personally love to see the hard workin’ super talent of Stephanie J. Block take home a trophy (she falls into that Billy Porter category actually – and I trust she’ll get her role soon enough), this one will go to the girl with the glass slipper.  And how can it not?  Everyone who watched the Grease reality show fell in love with Laura, and everyone who sees her in Cinderella falls in love with her.  And frankly, every voter who meets her in “real life” falls in love with her as well.  She’s a winsome personality and will be a winner on Sunday.

MY PREDICTION:  Laura Osnes (Cinderella)

YOUR PREDICTION: Patina Miller (Pippin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Patina Miller (Pippin)

BEST PERFORAMNCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Danny Burstein (Golden Boy), Richard Kind (The Big Knife), Billy Magnussen (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike), Tony Shalhoub (Golden Boy), Courtney B. Vance (Lucky Guy)

Now we’re getting to the tougher-to-call categories.  Here’s one that could go a bunch of ways, but here’s the way I’m going . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Billy Magnussen (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

YOUR PREDICTION: Billy Magnussen (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Tony Shalhoub (Golden Boy)

BEST PERFORAMNCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Carrie Coon (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?), Shalita Grant (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike), Judith Ivey (The Heiress), Judith Light (The Assembled Parties), Condola Rashad (The Trip to Bountiful)

If Judith Light didn’t win last year for Other Desert Cities, then I’d be going with her for the gold.  But voters will want someone new to step up on Sunday.  Judith Ivey is always awesome, but The Heiress is just too long ago forgotten.  I’m going to give it to another Vanya and Sonia performer . . . as everyone I talk to agrees the play is great, but the performances are even better.

MY PREDICTION:  Shalita Grant (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Judith Light (The Assembled Parties)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION:  Judith Light (The Assembled Parties)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Charl Brown (Motown), Keith Carradine (Hands on a Hardbody), Will Chase (The Mystery of Edwin Drood), Gabriel Ebert (Matilda), Terrence Mann (Pippin)

Boy these featured categories are brutal this year.  Even though there a lot of beloved industry vets in the men’s race, this year, they’ll all end up canceling each other out.  And this one is going to go to the Brit.

MY PREDICTION:  Gabriel Ebert (Matilda)

YOUR PREDICTION: Terrence Mann (Pippin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Terrence Mann (Pippin)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Annaleigh Ashford (Kinky Boots), Victoria Clark (Cinderella), Andrea Martin (Pippin), Keala Settle (Hands on a Hardbody), Lauren Ward (Matilda)

While Hardbody’s Keala Settle had me doubled over in laughter (thanks to her laughter), and last I heard there was an APB out for Andrea Martin who is wanted for grand-theft-of-a-show for her performance in Pippin . . . this one is going to surprise some people and go the girl that brings the house down every night at Kinky Boots.

MY PREDICTION:  Annaleigh Ashford (Kinky Boots)

YOUR PREDICTION: Andrea Martin (Pippin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Annaleigh Ashford (Kinky Boots)

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Nominees: Pam MacKinnon (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?), Nicholas Martin (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike), Bartlett Sher (Golden Boy), George C. Wolfe (Lucky Guy)

Vanya and Sonia picks up another one.

MY PREDICTION:  Nicholas Martin (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

YOUR PREDICTION: Nicholas Martin (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Nicholas Martin (Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike)

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Scott Ellis (The Mystery of Edwin Drood), Jerry Mitchell (Kinky Boots), Diane Paulus (Pippin), Matthew Warchus (Matilda)

Remember when I said that Pippin was a shoe-in for Best Revival of a Musical?  You know why?  Two words.  Diane Paulus.  Diane has an uncanny ability to take musicals that you might not think you want to see again, and makes them must-sees.  First Hair, then Porgy and Bess, and now Pippin.  And this year, she’ll get a big reward for that trilogy.

MY PREDICTION:  Diane Paulus (Pippin)

YOUR PREDICTION: Diane Paulus (Pippin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Diane Paulus (Pippin)

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Nominees: Andy Blankenbuehler (Bring it On), Peter Darling (Matilda), Jerry Mitchell (Kinky Boots), Chet Walker (Pippin)

While some people think that Pippin will also take best choreography, thanks to the great work of Chet Walker (and his inspiration, Bob Fosse), and others think the flippin’ gymnastics in Bring it On has a shot, I think this will go to the inventive steps (and swings, if you’ve seen the show) in Matilda.

MY PREDICTION:  Peter Darling (Matilda)

YOUR PREDICTION: Chet Walker (Pippin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Jerry Mitchell (Kinky Boots)

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Nominees: Chris Nightingale (Matilda), Stephen Oremus (Kinky Boots), Ethan Popp and Bryan Crook (Motown), Danny Troob (Cinderella)

The orchestrations Tony is tied very closely to best score (more than 50% of the Best Orchestrations winners since the Award’s inception in 1997 have gone to the Best Score winners) . . . and this year will be no different.

MY PREDICTION:  Stephen Oremus (Kinky Boots)

YOUR PREDICTION: Chris Nightingale (Matilda)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Danny Troob (Cinderella)

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: John Lee Beatty (The Nance), Santo Loquasto (The Assembled Parties), David Rockwell (Lucky Guy), Michael Yeargan (Golden Boy)

Ahhh, the design awards.  Handicapping these suckers comes with a high degree of difficulty, and it’s always where Tony Pools are won and lost.  The play is a toss-up this year, with great work all around.  But here’s how I see it:

MY PREDICTION:  David Rockwell (Lucky Guy)

YOUR PREDICTION: John Lee Beatty (The Nance)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: John Lee Beatty (The Nance)

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Rob Howell (Matilda), Anna Louizos (The Mystery of Edwin Drood), Scott Pask (Pippin), David Rockwell (Kinky Boots)

I spent 15 minutes trying to find all the words spelled out on the Matilda set. And voters will spend less than a minute voting for it for Best Scenic Design.

MY PREDICTION:  Rob Howell (Matilda)

YOUR PREDICTION: Rob Howell (Matilda)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Anna Louizos (The Mystery of Edwin Drood)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Soutra Gilmour (Cyrano de Bergerac), Ann Roth (The Nance), Albert Wolsky (The Heiress), Catherine Zuber (Golden Boy)

Period pieces usually win the day here, and we’ve got a lot of them.  I’m going with the Play that everyone likes but that hasn’t picked up anything yet, according to my tally.  So here’s the first.

MY PREDICTION:  Ann Roth (The Nance)

YOUR PREDICTION: Ann Roth (The Nance)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Albert Wolsky (The Heiress)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Gregg Barnes (Kinky Boots), Rob Howell (Matilda), Dominique Lemieux (Pippin), William Ivey Long (Cinderella)

Glass slippers, ball gowns, mice?  These are the type of costumes that win Tony Awards.  And they will for oft-winner Will this year.

MY PREDICTION:  William Ivey Long (Cinderella)

YOUR PREDICTION: William Ivey Long (Cinderella)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: William Ivey Long (Cinderella)

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer (Lucky Guy), Donald Holder (Golden Boy), Jennifer Tipton (The Testament of Mary), Japhy Weideman (The Nance)

When in doubt, give it to the best in the biz for their body of work, which is what voters will do.

MY PREDICTION:  Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer (Lucky Guy)

YOUR PREDICTION: Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer (Lucky Guy)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer (Lucky Guy)

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Kenneth Posner (Kinky Boots), Kenneth Posner (Pippin), Kenneth Posner (Cinderella), Hugh Vanstone (Matilda)

I wouldn’t have been able to read those words on that Matilda set if it wasn’t for that lighting, which is why . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Hugh Vanstone (Matilda)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Hugh Vanstone (Matilda)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Kenneth Posner (Pippin)

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: John Gromada (The Trip to Bountiful), Mel Mercier (The Testament of Mary), Leon Rothenberg (The Nance), Peter John Still and Marc Salzberg (Golden Boy)

This one is always a tough one to pick because the best sound design of a play is when a play doesn’t feel like there’s any sound.  I’m going  . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Leon Rothenberg (The Nance)

YOUR PREDICTION: Leon Rothenberg (The Nance)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Peter John Still and Marc Salzberg (Golden Boy)

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Jonathan Deans and Garth Helm (Pippin), Peter Hylenski (Motown), John Shivers (Kinky Boots), Nevin Steinberg (Cinderella)

Kinky will get another win here, thanks to the great work of . . .

MY PREDICTION:  John Shivers (Kinky Boots)

YOUR PREDICTION: John Shivers (Kinky Boots)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: John Shivers (Kinky Boots)

 

And that, my Tony-lovin’ friends, is all she wrote.

So how did I do?  Do you agree with my picks?  What are yours?  Comment below with where you think I got it right, and more importantly where you think I got it oh-so-very-wrong.

And then, tune in on Tuesday, when I’ll announce the winner of my Tony pool, and also grade me, you and Miss Rose!  Let the best Tony Picker win!

 

(Got a comment? I love ‘em, so comment below! Email Subscribers, click here then scroll down to say what’s on your mind!)
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Comments
  • JEB says:

    Tony Predix
    Best Musical Kinky Boots
    Best Play Vanya
    Best Revival Musical Pippin
    Best Direction Of A Musical Diane Paulus
    Best Direction Of A Play Nicholas Martin
    Best Revival Play Virginia
    Best Actress Musical Valisia LeKae
    Best Actor Musical Billy Porter
    Best Actor Play Nathan Lane
    Best Actress Play Cicely Tyson
    Best Featured Actress Musical Andrea Martin
    Best Featured Actor Musical
    Terrence Mann
    Best Featured Actress Play Condola/Grant
    Best Featured Actor Play Tony Shaloub
    Best Book Of A Musical Matilda
    Best Original Score Matilda
    Best Lighting Design Of A Musical Kenneth Posner in one of his 3 nominations
    Best Lighting Design of a Play Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer
    Best Costume Design Of A Musical William Ivey Long Cinderella
    Best Costume Design Play
    Ann Roth The Nance
    Best Scenic Desgin of A Musical Rob Howell Matilda
    Best Scenic Design Play John Lee Beaty The Nance
    Best Orchestrations Chris Nightgale Matilda
    Best Choreography Peter Darling Matilda

  • Michael James says:

    I think this may be the hardest year to predict and that will make the evening exciting. There seems to be a groundswell for “Kinky Boots” over the last few weeks and the show may surprise in some categories where it was not expected to win.

    I also believe that Condola Rashad might be a surprise win in the Featured Actress in a Play category. If Kristine Nielsen had been left in this category, she would be the sure-fire winner. However, people who have actually SEEN “The Trip to Bountiful” are taken my Ms. Rashad’s quiet understatement and the way she seems to break your heart with those beautiful large eyes and without saying a word. She also does a “take” that is the funniest I have seen this year.

    I also believe that Best Actress in a Musical is a dead heat between Laura Osnes and Patina Miller. Either one could win and it is hard to predict.

    It is going to be a great show.

  • frederick says:

    You have not accurately reported my predictions- there are a few mistakes. Seems like you have a program error- please check my submitted choices again. Thanks. And I have my printout and checked it twice.

  • Patrick says:

    It will be a travesty when Rob McClure does not win Best Actor in a Musical. Chaplin was a landmark performance.

  • Everett O'Neil says:

    Boy-o-boy you were right!!!! Just saw Macbeth tonight! Where the F*ck IS Alan Cumming in the Tony List!???
    Congratulations on an Awesome show!

  • Edkargir says:

    Tracy Letts deserves best actor. Hanks is ok but not great in a play that is not great. The best play is Ill eat you last which was not nominated and Bette Midler got robbed she gave the best performance in a play.

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