Does a good review from the NY Times guarantee a longer run?
A few months ago, I started pulling together some data on this very question. I’m glad I stopped.
Because Lan Ma Nygren of Rider University and Jeffrey S. Simonoff from NYU did similar research and they did it a whole lot better.
You can download the report here, which is entitled: Bright Lights, Big Dreams – A Case Study of Factors Relating to the Success of Broadway Shows.
But break out your geek glasses, because it’s a serious statistician’s look at our biz (how rare, and how awesome!). It includes phrases like “linear regression model” and “Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function” and “The Daily News.”
You have to read the report to get their full analysis of the factors that contribute to a hit (you’ll be impressed by how many you know already), but I will leave you with this quote from page 8: