This year’s Tony Award nominees for Best Musical and Best Play are . . .

Break out the thermometer and the Tylenol because I’ve got Tony Fever!

In just one week, all Hellzapoppin will break loose when the 2012 Tony Award nominees are announced live on NY1.

The prognosticators and theatrical handicappers have already started laying odds and placing bets on who is going home with Tony gold on June 12th.  But in order to be up for the trophy, you’ve got to get nominated.  And what many people forget is that a nomination (or lack thereof) can seal the fate for many a show that is holding onto their grosses, in hopes for the national exposure that a telecast Tony Award mention (or performance) will get them.

So who will be nominated?

I’m not going to even try to guess who the nominees will be in all the categories. It’d be too much like pin the tail on the Tony.  Instead, I’m going to focus on two of the three awards that actually have an effect on the bottom line, Best Musical and Best Play (the other gross-affecting award is Best Revival of a Musical).

Here are my predictions . . . and remember, this is not who I think should be nominated, but who I think will be nominated:

Best Play

– Jersualeum
– Good People
– War Horse 

And . . .

The fourth spot is always the tough one. I’d bet a pretty penny that the above three are locks. But what about the fourth spot?  Possible contenders in my opinion are Motherf**ker with the HatPitmen Painters and maybe even Brief Encounter.  But when it comes down to it, the Nominators will forget those fall shows and nominate . . .

 – Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo.

Best Musical

– Book of Mormon
– The Scottsboro Boys

Those are the two locks in the musical category, and then the field is wiiiiide open. You’ve got Catch Me If You Can, Priscilla, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Baby It’s You, Sister Act, Wonderland, People In The Picture, Elf, Women on the Verge . . . who said the new musical is dead?

But there are only two spots left!  Who will be “Legally Blonded” this year? (Explanation:  The Nominators tend to slap one commercial enterprise every year by snubbing them for the big award . . . Legally Blonde, Addams Family, Aida.  I was shocked at the Blonde snub, so I turned it into a verb.)

And the third spot goes to . . . .

– Catch Me If You Can.

A classic, old-fasioned musical with a creative team like Catch Me’s will not be overlooked.

 The final and fourth slot?

– Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson

Unfortunately, I think Priscilla, which is next in line for a nod, may be the Blonde of the year.

Now, I may be wrong about a bunch of these predictions.

But one thing I know for certain . . . if Spider-Man HAD opened this year, there is no way it would be have been nominated amongst this field.

Hmmmm . . . wait a minute . . . could that have been the reason for the final delay?  Did the Producers of Spider-Man push it to next season in the hope that a bounty of new musicals this season could mean a lack in the next?  Are they hoping that they could actually compete?  Could be, could be . . .

What do you think of my predictions?  Agree?  Disagree?  Who do you think will be nominated in this year’s Tony Awards?

 

(Got a comment?  I love ’em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

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Comments
  • NineDaves says:

    LOVE your choices. i totally agree. i don’t think bloody bloody or scottsboro have chances at winning, but i’m keeping my fingers crossed that they at least get the nominations.
    question: how much do performances factor into the nominations procedure? bloody bloody and scottsboro are closed, which could mean no performances. doesn’t that cut out a big chunk of their show? would they chose other shows (priscilla, sister act) in their place simple because that means two more performances?

  • Scottsboro for the win!!

  • Zeke says:

    I do not live in the US and therefore have not seen any of the shows. HOWEVER, I am very fond of musical theatre and have read all the critics and comments about the past season… so I agree with you regarding Book of Mormon, but I have the feeling the other spots will go to Catch me if you Can and Sister Act. Priscilla will probably be Legally Blonded, as you said.
    Love the blog, thanks for keeping me informed about the industry!

  • bryan says:

    i hope that wonderland will get some noms

  • Monica Reida says:

    I realized that this spring has produced a lot of great new plays and a lot of so-so musicals. Which means that while generally the Tony Nominators forget stuff that opens in the fall, The Scottsboro Boys and Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson have a shot. Because Scottsboro is by Kander and Ebb, touched on a sensitive topic, and was generally liked by those that saw it, I agree with you that it has a lock.
    As for best plays, I think the fourth slot is between Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo and Motherf***** With the Hat. The former is a new play, has a celebrity in it, and deals with a social issue, while the latter is marketable and was well-reviewed.

  • Warren says:

    Almost completely agree. I thought The Whipping Man was a pretty brilliant play. Haunting. Deserves something somewhere. I thought Catch Me If You Can was a plain sweet confection.

  • Henrick Jenks says:

    “who said the new musical is dead?”
    Those who saw the new musicals this season, probably…

  • Jason E. Bernard says:

    The Best Performance Of The Year Hands Down Is Elizabeth Rodriguez! It’s Heartwrenching And A Master Class In Acting! Patina Miller Is Superb! Too Bad Harvey Fierstein Can’t Be Nominated For La Cage! GO Tony Sheldon! And If Kander And Ebb Don’t Win For Best Score The Voters Are Complete Idiots! The Is The Best Score In At Least The Last 10 Years! J

  • janetpailet@gmail.com says:

    I’m thinking Sister Act will get it over Bloody Bloody. It has more Cache and name recognition and will play well in the regions and I hear that it’s actually quite good (seeing it in a few weeks). Despite the reviews, I don’t think that Bloody was that well received within the theater community. And having two artsy musicals that are not even open and both will have difficulty touring doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense…if any of the nominators think about this stuff…

  • Oh this is my fav time of year as a director/producer!!!
    Here are my predictions:
    BEST MUSICAL:
    – “The Book of Mormon” (it’s the hottest thing on Broadway since “The Producers”…there is no way this will be overlooked, plus it’s actually a GOOD show)
    – “The Scottsboro Boys” (a powerful musical, that had bad timing when it came to playing on the Great White Way..it’s gonna be tough to win since it already closed, but hopefully doesn’t end up like the 2009 revival of “Ragtime”..tons of nods, no wins)
    – “Catch Me If You Can” (fantastic score, great performances, production design and choreography, plus it’s a show that can tour the entire country, unlike “Mormon” or “Scottsboro”)
    – “Priscilla Queen of the Desert” (the TONYs are always nice enough to recognize a good gay musical when they see it on Broadway. It’s great story, has fun music and a fantastic production design and performances, plus it will bring tons of folks in to see it if they get to shake their stuff at the ceremony)
    BEST PLAY:
    – “Brief Encounter”
    – “Jerusalem”
    – “War Horse”
    – “Good People”

  • Isaac Hurwitz says:

    I think Sister Act will get the nom over either Bloody Bloody or Scottsboro Boys- it’s got much more touring potential than either of those shows, is still around, and got decent reviews and seems to be regarded as a lot of fun. In fact, it may be an better touring proposition than ANY of the other options. It’s also worth noting that Catch Me got “Blonded” by the Outer Critics Circle today, which remarkably chose to nominate Women on the Verge instead.

  • J-ROD says:

    I think you are dead on with the musicals.
    – Book of Mormon is the Comedy
    – Scottsboro Boys is the Traditional
    – Catch Me is the Well-Known-Made-Into-A-Musical
    – Bloody Bloody is the Dark Horse
    However, I must say immediately that I feel this year is rather dull in competition compared to previous years. Just because there are a lot of shows does not mean they are legit. I feel the past 5 years have been more exciting competition than this year for the new musical category. With that said, I would put my bets on Book of Mormon for the win. 😀
    J-ROD

  • Dan says:

    My crystal ball shows that Priscilla will get a nomination, and Catch Me will be Legally Blonded.

  • Robert Sokol says:

    Instead of “Legally Blonded” how about “blonde-sided”for the “egregiously overlooked,” as Julie Andrews once opined about Tony nominations?

  • I would hope that Sister Act gets that spot over BBAJ

  • Nelje says:

    After just watching my farovite movie tonight, The Bridges of Madison County, and then checking your blog I made a startling discovery. Worlds have collided. My farovite composer will be working on a musical version of my very farovite love story. It doesn’t really get better than that. I simply can’t wait to see it. Whenever it may open, and wherever it may be, I hope I can be there.

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Ken Davenport
Ken Davenport

Tony Award-Winning Broadway Producer

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