My Tony Award Predictions, Your Predictions . . . and a Psychic’s too!

Every year I post my Tony Award predictions alongside YOUR predictions (“Your Predictions” means what the majority opinion of what is going to win based on the submissions to my Tony Pool).

Well, this year I wanted a third person’s opinion as well . . . you know, a real expert . . . someone steeped in Broadway  knowledge, both current and historical.

So I went to a psychic!

Yep, I sent my intern down to our local storefront psychic (Miss Rose) and paid her $50 to tell us all who would be going home with the gold on Sunday night.  (Apparently, she closed her eyes and meditated for about 7 minutes before she checked the boxes on the Tony ballot.)

You ready to find out who you, me and Miss Rose chose?

Here goes . . .

BEST PLAY

NOMINEES:  Clybourne Park, Other Desert Cities, Peter and the Starcatcher, Venus in Fur

This ended up being more of a horse race than I originally thought.  Other Desert Cities had the lead back way back when, but when Clybourne came to town with Pulitzer Prize in hand, things got interesting.  Throw in the Cinderella story of Peter and the Starcatcher (which has a definite shot if there is a Clybourne/Desert Cities split), and we’ve got a fight to the finish.  That said, I’m going with what I think had the lead from the beginning . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Other Desert Cities

YOUR PREDICTION: Clybourne Park

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Peter and the Starcatcher


BEST MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, Once

If Once had an eligible score this year, then I might say that the big ol’ Best Musical prize, the one that can sell a @&*load of tickets, would go to Disney’s Newsies, and Once would rack up all “element” awards (book and score). But since the score was deemed ineligible, I think the voters won’t be satisfied with it just winning score, and they’ll give it the big vote.  And besides, even more than the Aida years, I’m hearing a lot of, “Come on . . . does Disney really need it?”

MY PREDICTION:  Once

YOUR PREDICTION:  Once

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Once


BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Lysistrata Jones (Douglas Carter Beane), Newsies (Harvey Fierstein), Nice Work If You Can Get It (Joe DiPietro), Once (Enda Walsh)

In this case, the artistic and ambitious choice wins out over the fun and fluff of the rest.

MY PREDICTION:  Once (Enda Walsh)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Once (Enda Walsh)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Once (Enda Walsh)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Bonnie & Clyde (Music by Frank Wildhorn and Lyrics by Don Black), Newsies (Music by Alan Menken and Lyrics by Jack Feldman), One Man, Two Guvnors (Music & Lyrics by Grant Olding), Peter and the Starcatcher (Music by Wayne Barker and Lyrics by Rick Elice)

This could end up being a shocker of a category.  You’d think that only B&C (which I don’t think enough voters saw) and Newsies would be the contenders. But, because of the Disney sentiment I mentioned above, and because I think people will want to help that Cinderella I spoke of to the ball, we may see Psychic Rose’s prediction of a Peter upset come true.  I’m not going that far, however . . . and still think that Newsies will take it, but wouldn’t it be a crazy headline if Peter came through?!?

MY PREDICTION:  Newsies (Music by Alan Menken and Lyrics by Jack Feldman)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Newsies (Music by Alan Menken and Lyrics by Jack Feldman)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION:  Peter and the Starcatcher (Music by Wayne Barker and Lyrics by Rick Elice)

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

NOMINEES:  Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man, Master Class, Wit

Despite one of the best Tony campaigns I’ve seen from Jeffrey Richards and The Best Man team, this one goes to Salesman.

MY PREDICTION:  Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

YOUR PREDICTION:  Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION:  Wit

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Evita, Follies, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess, Jesus Christ Superstar

What a difference nine months makes.  After Sondheim’s anti-P&B rant from last Fall, and a less than enthusiastic review from Brantley out-of-town, there were rumors that the show wouldn’t even come in.  But come in it did, to big business off the bat, and good notices all around.  And all of a sudden Sondheim’s own Follies, which everyone thought was a shoe-in for the award, looked a bit vulnerable.  That said, I think the voters have a hard time NOT voting for Sondheim when his name is on the ballot, so . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Follies

YOUR PREDICTION:  Evita

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION:  Evita


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

NOMINEES: James Corden (One Man, Two Guvnors), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Arthur Miller’s Death of  Salesman), James Earl Jones (Gore Vidal’s The Best Man), Frank Langella (Man and Boy), John Lithgow (The Columnist)

How I’d love to see an upset here . . . just because I think James Corden’s speech would be as joy-filled as his performance in One Man, Two Guvnor.  Alas, alack, I think we’ll be hearing from the “other Hoffman” for his sorrow-filled performance in Salesman.

MY PREDICTION:  Philip Seymour Hoffman (Arthur Miller’s Death of  Salesman)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Philip Seymour Hoffman (Arthur Miller’s Death of  Salesman)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION:  Philip Seymour Hoffman (Arthur Miller’s Death of  Salesman)


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

NOMINEES:  Nina Arianda (Venus in Fur), Tracie Bennett (End of the Rainbow), Stockard Channing (Other Desert Cities), Linda Lavin (The Lyons), Cynthia Nixon (Wit)

It’s no secret that Venus in Fur came back to Broadway this year because of Nina Arianda.  When she brought down the house in last year’s Born Yesterday, the show was pieced together to give her audiences the chance to see her bring down the house again.  And on Sunday night, she’ll be bringing home a Tony.

MY PREDICTION:  Nina Arianda (Venus in Fur)

YOUR PREDICTION: Nina Arianda (Venus in Fur)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Nina Arianda (Venus in Fur)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Danny Burstein (Follies), Jeremy Jordan (Newsies), Steve Kazee (Once), Norm Lewis (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Ron Raines (Follies)

Oh, this one could go so many ways.  I think the rookies (Jordan and Kazee – whose performances have nothing rookie-esque about them) will be dismissed by voters only because they know both of these ‘dudes’ are going to be on their ballots again soon enough.   So, the voters will want to reward one of the industry vets:  Burstein, Lewis or Raines.  It’s a three-sided coin flip, in my opinion.  But me and the psychic see eye to eye on this.

MY PREDICTION:  Danny Burstein (Follies)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Steve Kazee (Once)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Danny Burstein (Follies)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Jan Maxwell (Follies), Audra McDonald (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Cristin Milioti (Once), Kelli O’Hara (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Laura Osnes (Bonnie & Clyde)

I mean, really Audra?  Really?  5?  5 Tony Awards before you’re 42?  Answer?  Yep.

MY PREDICTION:  Audra McDonald (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess)

YOUR PREDICTION: Audra McDonald (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Cristin Milioti (Once)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

NOMINEES:  Christian Borle (Peter and the Starcatcher), Michael Cumpsty (End of the Rainbow), Tom Edden (One Man, Two Guvnors), Andrew Garfield (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman), Jeremy Shamos (Clybourne Park)

Paging Mr. Borle?  Christian Borle?  You have a Tony Award to pick up in aisle 3.  Mr. Christian Borle.

MY PREDICTION:  Christian Borle (Peter and the Starcatcher)

YOUR PREDICTION: Christian Borle (Peter and the Starcatcher)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Christian Borle (Peter and the Starcatcher)


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

NOMINEES: Linda Emond (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman), Spencer Kayden (Don’t Dress for Dinner), Celia Keenan-Bolger (Peter and the Starcatcher), Judith Light (Other Desert Cities), Condola Rashad (Stick Fly)

While I think a lot of folks would love to give Ms. Light the trophy because they are still talking about how surprisingly wonderful she was in last year’s Lombardi (which they weren’t expecting), and because she’s quite a charmer on the Tony circuit, I think it’s going to be hard to take down the meaty Miller role.  Fear not, Celia, you’ll be back.

MY PREDICTION:  Linda Emond (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Judith Light (Other Desert Cities)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Linda Emond (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

NOMINEES: Philip Boykin (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Michael Cerveris (Evita), David Alan Grier (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Michael McGrath (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Josh Young (Jesus Christ Superstar)

Of all the categories so far, this one is the toughest to pick.  And yeah, yeah, I can see how both YOU and MISS ROSE would pick Michael.  It makes sense, right?  But, when I look at the landscape, I don’t see much going to Nice Work . . . and I think the other Michael works his butt off in that show, and has for many, many a year.  And Michael C. has won before.  And Michael M. hasn’t.  And Michael M. is from Worcester, Massachusetts, where I went to high school, so . . . oh heck with it, I’m going for a shocker.

MY PREDICTION:  Michael McGrath (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

YOUR PREDICTION: Michael Cerveris (Evita)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Michael Cerveris (Evita)


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

NOMINEES: Elizabeth A. Davis (Once), Jayne Houdyshell (Follies), Judy Kaye (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Jessie Mueller (On A Clear Day You Can See Forever), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Ghost The Musical)

Did you know that Judy Kaye was the original Carlotta in Phantom on Broadway?  And that she won the Tony?  And did you know that she is going to get another Tony Award this year?

MY PREDICTION:  Judy Kaye (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Judy Kaye (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Jessie Mueller (On A Clear Day You Can See Forever)


BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

NOMINEES: Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors), Pam MacKinnon (Clybourne Park), Mike Nichols (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman), Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

What’s amazing about this category is the incredible diversity in the direction.  While I could see Nick H getting it for the jaw-breaking hilarity of One Man, and Roger and Alex getting it for the ingenuity of Peter, at the end of the ‘play’, I think it goes to . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Mike Nichols (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Mike Nichols (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)


BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES: Jeff Calhoun (Newsies), Kathleen Marshall (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Diane Paulus (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), John Tiffany (Once)

I’d like to predict the 2nd place winner here first.  After all the hubbub about the reinterpretation of Porgy by Diane Paulus, when people saw it, I think they thought, “Well, would you look at that . . . it’s actually very good!”  And that was all because of DP.  She’ll be back on this slate soon enough (maybe for next year’s Pippin?), so it’s ok that this year’s award goes to someone else . . .

MY PREDICTION:  John Tiffany (Once)

YOUR PREDICTION:  John Tiffany (Once)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Diane Paulus (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess)

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

NOMINEES: Rob Ashford (Evita), Christopher Gattelli (Newsies), Steven Hoggett (Once), Kathleen Marshall (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

I’ll be the first one jumping to my feet when Altar Boyz and Godspell choreographer Chris Gattelli gets up there in front of that podium.

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Gattelli (Newsies)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Christopher Gattelli (Newsies)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Christopher Gattelli (Newsies)


BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

NOMINEES:  William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Bill Elliott (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Martin Lowe (Once), Danny Troob (Newsies)

Conventional wisdom says that this award goes to the biggest and best (and least electronic) orchestra of the season.  Well, I’m going to go with the smaller orchestra . . . and the one that you can see.

MY PREDICTION:  Martin Lowe (Once)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Martin Lowe (Once)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess)


BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

NOMINEES: John Lee Beatty (Other Desert Cities), Daniel Ostling (Clybourne Park), Mark Thompson (One Man, Two Guvnors), Donyale Werle (Peter and the Starcatcher)

Lots of living rooms on stage this year . . .

MY PREDICTION:  John Lee Beatty (Other Desert Cities)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Donyale Werle (Peter and the Starcatcher)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Donyale Werle (Peter and the Starcatcher)

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Bob Crowley (Once), Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll (Ghost The Musical), Tobin Ost and Sven Ortel (Newsies), George Tyspin (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark)

And here it is, the first award for Spider-Man!

MY PREDICTION:  George Tyspin (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark)

YOUR PREDICTION:  George Tyspin (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: George Tyspin (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

NOMINEES:  William Ivey Long (Don’t Dress for Dinner), Paul Tazewell (A Streetcar Named Desire), Mark Thompson (One Man, Two Guvnors), Paloma Young (Peter and the Starcatcher)

For Christian Borle’s mustache alone (ok, I know, it’s not really a costume, but it’ll help, believe me).

MY PREDICTION:  Paloma Young (Peter and the Starcatcher)

YOUR PREDICTION: Paloma Young (Peter and the Starcatcher)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Paloma Young (Peter and the Starcatcher)


BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Gregg Barnes (Follies), ESosa (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Eiko Ishioka (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark), Martin Pakledinaz (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

Spidey, take II.

MY PREDICTION:  Eiko Ishioka (Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark)

YOUR PREDICTION: Gregg Barnes (Follies)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Martin Pakledinaz (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

NOMINEES: Jeff Croiter (Peter and the Starcatcher), Peter Kaczorowski (The Road to Mecca), Brian MacDevitt (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman), Kenneth Posner (Other Desert Cities)

Much was made about the opening scene of Salesman . . . and so much of that has to do with the lighting.

MY PREDICTION:  Brian MacDevitt (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)

YOUR PREDICTION: Jeff Croiter (Peter and the Starcatcher)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Brian MacDevitt (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman)


BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Christopher Akerlind (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Natasha Katz (Follies), Natasha Katz (Once), Hugh Vanstone (Ghost The Musical)

While it wasn’t everyone’s cup of tea, that LED wall in Ghost was certainly something.  And the designer deserves some credit for it.

MY PREDICTION:  Hugh Vanstone (Ghost The Musical)

YOUR PREDICTION: Hugh Vanstone (Ghost The Musical)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Natasha Katz (Follies)


BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

NOMINEES:  Paul Arditti (One Man, Two Guvnors), Scott Lehrer (Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman), Gareth Owen (End of the Rainbow), Darron L. West (Peter and the Starcatcher)

The score of Starcatcher actually gives it a leg up in this category.  When plays have music they need more sound, and therefore the sound design becomes more apparent to the voter, and therefore . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Darron L West (Peter and the Starcatcher)

YOUR PREDICTION: Darron L West (Peter and the Starcatcher)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Darron L West (Peter and the Starcatcher)


BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Acme Sound Partners (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), Clive Goodwin (Once), Kai Harada (Follies), Brian Ronan (Nice Work If You Can Get It)

The very acoustic operatic Porgy is definitely a contender here, but I think Once takes it in what I call, “Tony By Association” (The voters liked the show more, so they’ll attach other kudos to it).

MY PREDICTION:  Clive Goodwin (Once)

YOUR PREDICTION: Clive Goodwin (Once)

PSYCHIC’S PREDICTION: Acme Sound Partners (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess)

 

So there you have it . . . my predicts, yours and Miss Rose’s!

And I will say it here, if Miss Rose beats me?  I’m going to law school.  Or worse.  Politics.  😉

Enjoy the show on Sunday night!  And tell your friends to watch.  Let’s see what we can do about taking the ratings up to where they deserve to be.

 

(Got a comment? I love ‘em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

——

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Comments
  • Douglas Hicton says:

    You know, I forget what I predicted, but from what I remember, I think you and I were pretty close.

    Anyway, I hope the marquee spells it Gershwins’ rather than Gershwin’s. I haven’t checked.

  • Ellen Orchid says:

    I’d love to go to the Tony’s. Who wouldn’t? Do you know anyone who has an extra ticket, for whatever reason? I’d like to buy it. Thanks. 347-729-8292.

  • SweetP says:

    Looking ahead: “Next year’s Pippin”? Joke? If not…?

  • Brian says:

    I’m willing to bet that if it was an LED wall the video designer of Ghost deserves all the credit. He (John Driscoll) is nominated along with the scene designer this year. The same goes for Newsies – Sven Ortel was the video designer, but he and Tobin are nominated together.

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