My predictions, your predictions (and a psychic’s) for the 2014 Tony Awards!

The Friday before the Tony Awards.

It’s the last chance for water cooler talk about who will win, until Monday morning when the cooler chitter chatter will be all about who won . . . and which actor made the kookiest acceptance speech.

This has been one of the hardest years to predict winners in a bunch of the big categories.  What makes this year different from all others?  A few things:

  • There were no stand out smashes in either the Best Musical or the Best Play categories.
  • The new nomination rules allowed (or didn’t allow) more than the usual quartet of nominees.
  • The level of lobbying for votes was higher than ever.

But regardless of how hard it is, I’m going to predict who I think will take home the trophies on Sunday night right now.  (I always wait until the very last moment to make my predictions, because the chatter on the street during the last few days tells me something, as voters start to get more vocal about who they are voting for and who they expect to win.) In addition to my predictions, I’ve also included who YOU think is going to win, by calculating who the majority of you chose in my Tony Pool. And, we’ve also brought back our favorite storefront psychic, Miss Rose!  I shelled out a couple of sawbucks and had Miss Rose use her special powers to tell us who she thinks will win. Let’s see what you, me, and Miss Rose predict! BEST PLAY

Nominees:  Act OneAll the Way, Casa ValentinaMothers and Sons, Outside Mullingar

MY PREDICTION:  Mothers and Sons

YOUR PREDICTION: All the Way

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Casa Valentina

I know, I know, I’m going against what I just wrote about three days ago.  And yes, yes, part of the reason why is that Mothers and Sons is my show (My mom always said, “Always never play ball in the house!  And always vote for your own show when you’re running a Tony Pool on your blog!”.)  Here’s why I’m thinking upset.  First, the stat I wrote about on Wednesday is too perfect not to be busted.  100% of plays that win both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics go on to win the Tony?  Too perfect.  And second, there are a lot more voters for the Tonys than those other awards, and I just think they are going to reward All The Way another way (see below).  And I think Mothers and Sons, while admittedly may not be doing the business of a big winner, is moving people the way a Best Play should.

Miss Rose, I just don’t think so.

BEST MUSICAL

Nominees:  After MidnightAladdinBeautiful- The Carole King MusicalA Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder

MY PREDICTION:  A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder

YOUR PREDICTION: A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: After Midnight

This is where the stat from a few days ago will hold true.  Drama Desk and Outer Critics winner A Gentleman’s Guide will take the biggest prize of the night.  While Beautiful will probably come a close second in this race (and don’t rule out a tie), I think that voters will opt for the show with the original score over its biggest competition in Beautiful.  And what a story this will be for the folks at The Guide.

Oh, and at this point, I think Miss Rose might be on crack.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Chad Beguelin (Aladdin), Douglas McGrath (Beautiful-The Carole King Musical), Woody Allen (Bullets Over Broadway), Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MY PREDICTION:  Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

YOUR PREDICTION: Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Chad Beguelin (Aladdin)

While I do think Chad Beguelin did a great job with his self irreverential book to Aladdin, again I think Miss Rose is off her psychic rocker.  Beautiful’s book is a good one as well, but give it to the dude with the pen at Gentleman’s Guide because of the originality of the piece.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: Alan Menken, Howard Ashman, Time Rice and Chad Begeulin (Aladdin), Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County), Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder), Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey (If/Then)

MY PREDICTION:  Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey (If/Then)

A vote for Jason Robert Brown is a vote for The Bridges of Madison County.  And I’ve heard from so many voters out there how they’d actually wish they could vote for the show for Best Musical.  But they can’t.  But the can vote for the score.  And they will.  If we saw the tabulations of the actual votes, I’d bet this would be a landslide.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Nominees: The Cripple of InishmaanThe Glass MenagerieA Raisin in the Sun, Twelfth Night

MY PREDICTION: Twelfth Night

YOUR PREDICTION: The Glass Menagerie

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION:  A Raisin in the Sun

Now things are getting tough.  I think Menagerie and Raisin, two stellar revivals, will cancel each other out, and the revered gender-bending Twelfth Night will take the Tony.

Sorry, Miss Rose, keep trying.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Hedwig and the Angry InchLes MisérablesViolet

MY PREDICTION:  Hedwig and the Angry Inch

YOUR PREDICTION: Hedwig and the Angry Inch

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Hedwig and the Angry Inch

Thank God, Miss Rose.  I was beginning to recommend that you look for a new line of work.  But no, no, no, you’ve got a shot at this psychic thing thanks to your Hedwig prediction.  If the show didn’t star Neil Patrick Harris, Violet might have a shot, but everyone loves them some NPH so they’ll shower him (see below) and his show with as much as they can.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Samuel Barnett (Twelfth Night), Bryan Cranston (All the Way), Chris O’Dowd (Of Mice and Men), Mark Rylance (Richard III), Tony Shalhoub (Act One)

MY PREDICTION:  Bryan Cranston (All the Way)

YOUR PREDICTION: Bryan Cranston (All the Way)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (Richard III)

If Cranston doesn’t win, I’ll change my blog to be about pet grooming for iguanas.

Clear the mantle, Bryan.  You’ve got E and T of the EGOT.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Tyne Daly (Mothers and Sons), LaTanya Richardson Jackson (A Raisin in the Sun), Cherry Jones (The Glass Menagerie), Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill), Estelle Parsons (The Velocity of Autumn)

MY PREDICTION:  Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill)

YOUR PREDICTION: Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Cherry Jones (The Glass Menagerie)

People love to watch history being made.  And they will vote for Audra to help make that history happen.

Audra will be a six-time winner as of Sunday night.  And she deserves every single freakin’ one.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Ramin Karimloo (Les Misérables), Andy Karl (Rocky), Jefferson Mays (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder), Bryce Pinkham (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder),

MY PREDICTION: Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

 YOUR PREDICTION: Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Andy Karl (Rocky)

Oh man, would I love Miss Rose to be right about this one.  But, alas, alack, The Neil Machine will take this prize not only for his stellar performance, but also for just being the awesome Broadway dude he has been for the last decade or so.  Expect a standing-o when he takes the trophy and a terrific speech to go with it.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Mary Bridget Davies (A Night with Janis Joplin), Sutton Foster (Violet), Idina Menzel (If/Then), Jessie Mueller (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical), Kelli O’Hara (The Bridges of Madison County)

MY PREDICTION:  Kelli O’Hara (The Bridges of Madison County)

YOUR PREDICTION: Jessie Mueller (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Jessie Mueller (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical)

This is another super tight race.  And it would be harder to call if Bridges had been nominated.  But first, Kelli delivered an operatically awesome performance.  Second, she’s been nominated four times for terrific work and never taken home the Tony.  And lastly, Bridges was somehow left off the nomination list . . . and I think even the voters are confused.  So Kelli will win, because she deserves it, and because it will be a vote for the show and all that it attempted to do.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Reed Birney (Casa Valentina), Paul Chahidi (Twelfth Night), Stephen Fry (Twelfth Night), Mark Rylance (Twelfth Night), Brian J. Smith (The Glass Menagerie)

MY PREDICTION:  Mark Rylance (Twelfth Night)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Mark Rylance (Twelfth Night)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Stephen Fry (Twelfth Night)

Mark Rylance is the kind of actor people hate.  Because no matter what he does he is fantastic.   Give him the trophy.  And let him say something super awkward in his speech.  And let’s get on with it.

BEST PERFORAMNCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Sarah Greene (The Cripple of Inishmaan), Celia Keenan-Bolger (The Glass Menagerie), Sophie Okonedo (A Raisin in the Sun), Anika Noni Rose (A Raisin in the Sun), Mare Winningham (Casa Valentina)

MY PREDICTION:  Celia Keenan-Bolger (The Glass Menagerie)

 YOUR PREDICTION:  Mare Winningham (Casa Valentina)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Sophie Okonedo (A Raisin in the Sun)

Although Celia isn’t helped by the fact that she show was in the fall  (read this post to understand why), she’s an industry darling that people just want to pick up and put in their pocket to take home with them.  She’s been nominated before but hasn’t won, and her time has finally come.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Danny Burstein (Cabaret), Nick Cordero (Bullets Over Broadway), Joshua Henry (Violet), James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin), Jarrod Spector (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical),

MY PREDICTION:  James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)

YOUR PREDICTION: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)

James gets a standing ovation every night after his big number in Aladdin.  Voters are influenced by that kind of response.  They’ll remember all that energy and check the box next to his name as a result.  Oh, and expect James to perform this number on the show (to great, great, expense), and expect him to kill it.  And expect Aladdin to sell gobs of tickets the next day as a result.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Linda Emond (Cabaret), Lena Hall (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Anika Larsen (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical), Adriane Lenox (After Midnight), Lauren Worsham (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MY PREDICTION:  Lena Hall (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Lena Hall (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Adriane Lenox (After Midnight)

Now this one is tough.  But I’m going with the girl that plays a guy.  One, there’s a degree of difficulty there that the other ladies don’t have.  And two, it’s the NPH factor.  Everything he touches, takes home gold.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Nominees: Tim Carroll (Twelfth Night), Michael Grandage (The Cripple of Inishmaan), Kenny Leon (A Raisin in the Sun), John Tiffany (The Glass Menagerie)

MY PREDICTION:  John Tiffany (The Glass Menagerie)

YOUR PREDICTION: John Tiffany (The Glass Menagerie)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: John Tiffany (The Glass Menagerie)

Remember that time Celia Keenan Bolger’s character in Glass appeared through a couch?  Voters do.  Give it to Johnny boy.

 BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight), Michael Mayer (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Leigh Silverman (Violet), Darko Tresnjak (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MY PREDICTION: Michael Mayer (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

YOUR PREDICTION: Darko Tresnjak (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight)

What to do, what to say.  I think Miss Rose got the right guy, but the wrong category (see below).  It’s between Darko and Mr. Mayer on this one, according to my book.  And well, I’m going with the Hedwig guy.  I think the voters will think they’ve given Gentleman’s Guide enough kudos for this year, and they’ll spread the love to Michael, who took a nichey-little transvestite show from downtown and turned into a mainstream success.  Oh, and the voters love those Bob Wankel BJ jokes.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Nominees: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight), Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine (Rocky), Casey Nicholaw (Aladdin), Susan Stroman (Bullets Over Broadway)

MY PREDICTION:  Warren Carlyle (After Midnight)

YOUR PREDICTION: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine (Rocky)

Mr. Carlyle, I presume?  Yes, yes, Mr. C. will get the trophy here for the amazing bluesy pas de deuxs in After Midnight, and because the voters will want to do something for the show, since it hasn’t won anything yet.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Nominees: Doug Besterman (Bullets Over Broadway), Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County), Steve Sidwell (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical), Jonathan Tunick (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MY PREDICTION:  Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Jason Robert Brown (The Bridges of Madison County)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Doug Besterman (Bullets Over Broadway)

Besterman’s Bullets has the most traditional big Broadway sound, which I find usually trumps all in this category.  But not this year.  The trophy will go to JRB, as a nod to his skillful orchestrations, and the score itself.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Beowulf Boritt (Act One), Bob Crowley (The Glass Menagerie), Es Devlin (Machinal), Christopher Oram (The Cripple of Inishmaan)

MY PREDICTION: Bob Crowley (The Glass Menagerie)

YOUR PREDICTION: Beowulf Boritt (Act One)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Bob Crowley (The Glass Menagerie)

Way to go, Miss Rose.  Those dark, reflecting pools and the stairway to nowhere will grab Mr. Crowley a Tony on Sunday.  “Who knew you could do such a beautiful job on a design of a show I’ve seen a thousand times,” was one voter said to me.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Christopher Barreca (Rocky), Julian Crouch (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Alexander Dodge (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder), Santo Loquasto (Bullets Over Broadway)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Barreca (Rocky)

YOUR PREDICTION: Christopher Barreca (Rocky)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Christopher Barreca (Rocky)

Whenever you take out the first 10 rows of orchestra seats for your design you:  a) make the producer nervous and b) win a Tony Award.  Yo, Christopher!  Come get your Tony!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Jane Greenwood (Act One), Michael Krass (Machinal), Rita Ryack (Casa Valentina), Jenny Tiramani (Twelfth Night)

MY PREDICTION:  Jenny Tiramani (Twelfth Night)

YOUR PREDICTION: Jenny Tiramani (Twelfth Night)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Jenny Tiramani (Twelfth Night)

Shakespeare always has an edge in the costume categories.  And putting men in those dresses almost isn’t fair.  Jenny, meet Tony.  Tony, this is Jenny.  You two are going to be very close.  Jenny might even want to sleep with you.  I know I would.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Linda Ch0 (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder), William Ivey Long (Bullets Over Broadway), Arianne Phillips (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Isabel Toledo (After Midnight),

MY PREDICTION:  Linda Ch0 (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

YOUR PREDICTION: Linda Ch0 (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Isabel Toledo (After Midnight)

The period of A Gentleman’s Guide will help Linda nab this one, and the fact that her show is gonna win big prizes doesn’t hurt.  In tight races I often find design awards go with the big winner in what I call, “Tony By Association.”  It’s a good thing she deserves to win as well.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Paule Constable (The Cripple of Inishmaan), Jane Cox (Machinal), Natasha Katz (The Glass Menagerie), Japhy Weideman (Of Mice and Men)

MY PREDICTION:  Natasha Katz (The Glass Menagerie)

YOUR PREDICTION: Natasha Katz (The Glass Menagerie)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Japhy Weideman (Of Mice and Men)

That second act sequence of light in Glass was stunning.  Who knew you could do that with light?   Natasha Katz did.  And she’ll win for it.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Kevin Adams (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Christopher Akerlind (Rocky), Howell Binkley (After Midnight), Donald Holder (The Bridges of Madison County)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Akerlind (Rocky)

YOUR PREDICTION: Kevin Adams (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Christopher Akerlind (Rocky)

Big shows tend to win design awards.  And when you’ve got a big show with giant TV screens and a boxing ring and stuff, you also win design awards.  Congrats, Chris.  Looking forward to working with you (I’ll tell you on what project I’m working with him later.)

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Alex Baranowski (The Cripple of Inishmaan), Steve Canyon Kennedy (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill), Dan Moses Schreier (Act One), Matt Tierney (Machinal),

MY PREDICTION:  Steve Canyon Kennedy (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill)

YOUR PREDICTION: Steve Canyon Kennedy (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Steve Canyon Kennedy (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill)

This one verges on not being fair.  I mean, Steve not only had music to showcase his sound, he had Audra McDonald singing that music in his play!  That said, Lady Day did sound beautiful, and take it for someone who produced a show in that theater, it ain’t easy to make music sound good in the round.  And Steve did just that.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Peter Hylenski (After Midnight), Tim O’Heir (Hedwig and the Angry Inch), Mick Potter (Les Misérables), Brian Ronan (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical)

MY PREDICTION:  Brian Ronan (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical)

YOUR PREDICTION: Tim O’Heir (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

MISS ROSE’S PREDICTION: Brian Ronan (Beautiful- The Carole King Musical)

Did anyone realize that Beautiful didn’t win any awards so far?  Until now!

And there you have it, my readers!  My predictions, your predictions and Miss “I could been on crack and next year I might be changing oil for a living because I make such horrible Tony predictions and I feel like Ken outed me” Rose!

How will we do?  Will Miss Rose’s upsets kick all of our butts?

Watch the Tonys on Sunday night on CBS.  And then check the blog on Tuesday for the results.

Oh – and follow me on Twitter for some live-tweetin’ comments throughout the ceremony.

And good luck to all the nominees!

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Comments
  • Jay says:

    Boo – last year you did a count down to remind your readers how many days they had left to enter the contest. I kept pushing it off until I woke up this morning and finally had a moment to do it and was shut out. No worries, I probably guessed as good as Miss Rose did. Good luck to all the entrants!

  • Jared says:

    John Tiffany better not win for “Glass Menagerie.” I know I’m in the minority, but I *hated* that production, and I blame Tiffany. I think he misdirected his actors, and to me it felt like he applied “concepts” just for the hell of it instead of them supporting the story. He didn’t follow through on anything.

    Let’s talk about Laura’s entrance through the couch. It is one of the first images we see in the play, and nothing, absolutely nothing else in the production was anywhere near as surreal. So not only is the choice not supported by anything else Tiffany did in the show, but because it comes early on it sets up expectations in the audience’s mind about a tone Tiffany wasn’t prepared to follow through on.

    Carroll deserves to win for taking such a well-worn Shakespearean comedy and making it both fresh and genuinely hilarious for the first time in years. Who knew such a simple idea (stage it the way Shakespeare did) would produce such massive results?

  • Bobbi Smith says:

    I have been avoiding “Gentlemen’s Guide” all season. I see at least a show a month and never had any desire to see it. Obviously, I must be in the minority, as it most likely will win for best musical. Sorry to say I haven’t seen “Once” either. (Did you produce that?) Neither one of those shows appeal to me. However, I absolutely loved “Bridges of Madison County” and thought both stars did an excellent job and the music was wonderful. It made me sad that it closed so early after such beautiful reviews. I hope it does pick up a few Tonys.

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