My Broadway Predictions For 2030.

When thinking ahead to future years, the first thing that most people do is calculate their age.

Come on, you know you do it.   How old will you be in 2030?

I’ll be 57.  My daughter will be 12.  (God help me.)

So . . . how old will Broadway be?

Well, there is a big debate about when Broadway began . . . some say it started when the first theater opened down on Nassau street in 1750 (!).  But since that venue was only 280 seats I’d say that’s when Off Broadway began (Yep, Off Broadway preceded Broadway – if that’s possible give them monikers).  Others say Broadway began when the first 2,000-seat venue was built in 1798.

But I put the birthday at the opening of The Black Crook in 1866 which is considered by most to be the first musical, and the first long-running show (it ran for 474 performances – and it was also five and a half hours long!).

That would make Broadway 154 years old in 2030.  How do you think she’ll hold up at that age?  What will she look like?

Last week, I blogged about my top favorite Broadway stories for 2019, and now I’m going to give you five of my crystal ball-like predictions for what I believe will happen on Broadway by 2030!

Let me just say a few chants, sprinkle some sage around my computer, and channel my inner psychic-friends-network.

Here we go, in no particular fortune-tellin’ order:

  1.  Hard Tickets will be extinct.
    Honestly, these will probably be gone well before 2030, but by the end of the decade you definitely won’t ever need a print out of a ticket . . . or, well, anything, for that matter.  In other industries, fingerprints and facial recognition will probably get you access to whatever it is you paid for.  We’ll still be lagging behind (like we always do), but we definitely won’t have those little slips of cardstock anymore.  Sorry, scalpers.
  2. 90% of shows will be recorded and streamed.
    In 2030, we’ll finally figure out the economic model that allows for shows to be distributed via video, providing another revenue stream for the Authors, Actors, Investors, etc.  Now, exactly hen Producers allow the streaming to happen (during the run or only after?) will still be debated.  But we’ll crack the code . . . partly because we’ll have to.  Because if the cost of producing (and you don’t need to be a bloggin’ fortune teller to predict that), we’ll need the additional income to keep our recoupment.  (The missing 10% by the way is for the stars and artists who just never want what they’ve done on video, for whatever reason.)
  3. A woman will be running a theater chain.
    This is not only a prediction, this is a call to action.
  4. Chat boards will cease to exist.
    Gossip won’t, so all those folks who love theater so much they want to talk about it all day, when they probably should be working (or making theater themselves), will have to find a new place to chat.  And they will, because nothing stops passionate people who want to talk Broadway. I know, I was a rec.arts.theater.newsgroup guy back in 1991.   (Remind me to tell you how I met Jeff Marx, the lyricist of Avenue Q online back then.)
  5. Our recoupment rate will stay the same.You’re going to see some data on this in next week’s blog, but Broadway has been recouping 20% of its shows for a long time (despite the fact that our grosses have increased substantially).  As much as I’d like to say we’re going to find a path to more prolific profitability over the next ten years, I doubt it.  We’re a risky industry.  Less risky that most industries in our category, actually, as I talk about here.  Our job may actually be to prevent it from our recoupment rate going the other direction (something else I’m going to talk about next week).Oh, and a bonus prediction . . .
  6. Hamilton will still be running.

So, what do you think of ’em?  Agree?  Disagree?  Got your own predictions?  Mention them in the comments below.

And if you are interested in some other predictions I’ve made in the past, check out my TedXBroadway talk here, which I did in 2012, and predicted 20 years ahead.  Some of the stuff has already come true.

 

 

Did you know Broadway has a loyalty program? And why you should have one too.

One of my favorite theater reporters wrote an article for the Associated Press recently and with the headline alone, he nailed something that I had been thinking for years:

A Broadway Secret:  A Frequent Flyer Program for Theater Fans

If I had the insight to write that article, I would have headlined it, “Why the @#$% do more people not know about the awesome thing that is Audience Rewards, for @#$%’s sake?”

And that is one of the many reasons I don’t write for the Associated Press!

If you don’t know about Audience Rewards, click here, learn more and join.  It’s the “Official Loyalty Program for Broadway” that was started years ago, in a tri-partisan partnership between the major theater chains (which ain’t such an easy thing to broker, by the way).

As a member of Audience Rewards, you earn points, you save money, you get freebies.  Bingo, bango, bongo . . . who doesn’t want that?

Don’t misunderstand, AR is a vibrant program with a ton of members.  But why doesn’t it feel like an Airline or Hotel loyalty program, which has entire websites dedicated to how to earn more points, hacking VIP status, and more?

In other words, why aren’t YOU a member?

It didn’t take me too long to realize one of the answers.  You see, AR is an “industry” loyalty program, not a brand-specific loyalty program.

You’re probably a member of a whole bunch of loyalty programs:  American Airlines, Marriot, Hertz, Chili’s, your nail salon, poke bowl place, etc, etc.

You’re probably NOT a member of these loyalty programs:  Travel, Hotels, American Chain Restaurants, Beauty Salons, Fast Food Fads, etc.

See what I mean?  Industry vs. Specific Brand.

In fact, our loyalty program is probably one of the FEW industry-wide loyalty programs out there (again, a testament to the power brokers who negotiated this deal – because it’s somewhat unprecedented).

I’m so thankful for Audience Rewards, because it gives our fans something to hang their loyalty on, and for us Producers, it puts butts in seats.

But what I’d like to see is more show-specific loyalty programs.

What punch card can you offer your most loyal fans for coming back more than once . . . or even better, recommending your show to others?  What type of upgrades can you offer to the audience members who pay full price rather than discount? What non-advertised secret clubs can you create that people can aspire to get an invite to (see American Airlines Concierge Key program).

If you’re not rewarding your customers for their loyalty to you and your brand, then you are missing out on one of the most important parts of your marketing campaigns.  Because keeping the customers you have happy is so much easier than acquiring new ones.

So just because our industry has a terrific loyalty program, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have one too.

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Learn more marketing tips live and in-person from some of the best in the Broadway biz here.

 

 

 

What I loved about the Harry Potter Times Square Takeover.

In case you missed it, on September 5th, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child did cast a spell over all the digital billboards in Times Square.

As you can see in this clip,  it was the largest advertising “takeover” in NYC on record . . . and probably the world.

Why did I love this marketing move so much?

Is it because of all the “traditional” forms of media still being used today, Outdoor has held its value, while print, tv and more have dropped precipitously?

Is it because it was a “back to Hogwarts” campaign that was calendar-synced to our back to school week . . . and timing your campaigns with what is on the mind of your consumer always strengthens your impression?

Is it because while Potter continues to do good biz, there has been some chatter about why it isn’t bigger than Hamilton and others, with the brand it has (I’d say it’s the doubleheader – which is never easy for a US audience to embrace)?  This stunt answered the question of its size, especially with the coincided announcements of productions in San Francisco, Toronto and Hamburg.

Is it because Sarah Jessica Parker was there?

I loved it for all of those things . . . and for one other.

I’m positive that when the idea came up in the advertising meeting of taking over every billboard in Times Square, someone said or at the very least thought . . . “That’s impossible.”

And then, someone whipped open their spellbook, gave that person the head of a donkey with no tongue, and made this takeover effin’ happen.

It probably cost a small fortune.  It probably was a giant pain in the a$$.

But the best marketing (and the best everything!) is what hasn’t been done before.  And things that haven’t been done require passion and perseverance.

And, they always pay off.  Always (even though sometimes you can’t see it right away).

Kudos to the Producers, the Ad Agency, the Press Rep and to everyone on the Potter team for doing/imagining the impossible and making it a reality.

Now, if they could only make quidditch a real sport.

 

 

 

Broadway Grosses w/e 9/8/2019: “Fall”-ing Flat

The following are the Broadway grosses for the week ending September 1, 2019. The Broadway grosses are courtesy of The Broadway League.

Broadway Grosses w/e 9/1/2019: Moulin Rouge! is taking over the box office!

The following are the Broadway grosses for the week ending September 1, 2019. The Broadway grosses are courtesy of The Broadway League.

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