This year’s Tony Award nominees for Best Musical and Best Play are . . .

Break out the thermometer and the Tylenol because I’ve got Tony Fever!

In just one week, all Hellzapoppin will break loose when the 2012 Tony Award nominees are announced live on NY1.

The prognosticators and theatrical handicappers have already started laying odds and placing bets on who is going home with Tony gold on June 12th.  But in order to be up for the trophy, you’ve got to get nominated.  And what many people forget is that a nomination (or lack thereof) can seal the fate for many a show that is holding onto their grosses, in hopes for the national exposure that a telecast Tony Award mention (or performance) will get them.

So who will be nominated?

I’m not going to even try to guess who the nominees will be in all the categories. It’d be too much like pin the tail on the Tony.  Instead, I’m going to focus on two of the three awards that actually have an effect on the bottom line, Best Musical and Best Play (the other gross-affecting award is Best Revival of a Musical).

Here are my predictions . . . and remember, this is not who I think should be nominated, but who I think will be nominated:

Best Play

– Jersualeum
– Good People
– War Horse 

And . . .

The fourth spot is always the tough one. I’d bet a pretty penny that the above three are locks. But what about the fourth spot?  Possible contenders in my opinion are Motherf**ker with the HatPitmen Painters and maybe even Brief Encounter.  But when it comes down to it, the Nominators will forget those fall shows and nominate . . .

 – Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo.

Best Musical

– Book of Mormon
– The Scottsboro Boys

Those are the two locks in the musical category, and then the field is wiiiiide open. You’ve got Catch Me If You Can, Priscilla, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Baby It’s You, Sister Act, Wonderland, People In The Picture, Elf, Women on the Verge . . . who said the new musical is dead?

But there are only two spots left!  Who will be “Legally Blonded” this year? (Explanation:  The Nominators tend to slap one commercial enterprise every year by snubbing them for the big award . . . Legally Blonde, Addams Family, Aida.  I was shocked at the Blonde snub, so I turned it into a verb.)

And the third spot goes to . . . .

– Catch Me If You Can.

A classic, old-fasioned musical with a creative team like Catch Me’s will not be overlooked.

 The final and fourth slot?

– Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson

Unfortunately, I think Priscilla, which is next in line for a nod, may be the Blonde of the year.

Now, I may be wrong about a bunch of these predictions.

But one thing I know for certain . . . if Spider-Man HAD opened this year, there is no way it would be have been nominated amongst this field.

Hmmmm . . . wait a minute . . . could that have been the reason for the final delay?  Did the Producers of Spider-Man push it to next season in the hope that a bounty of new musicals this season could mean a lack in the next?  Are they hoping that they could actually compete?  Could be, could be . . .

What do you think of my predictions?  Agree?  Disagree?  Who do you think will be nominated in this year’s Tony Awards?

 

(Got a comment?  I love ’em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

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My Tony predictions and yours revealed.

Can you hear it?

Every year, as Tony Sunday approaches, you can hear the chatter about who’s gonna go home with a trophy get louder and louder.

So let’s add to it!

My predictions are always like the odds for the horses running in the Kentucky Derby  they change daily until the event.  And this year, since we have so many neck-and-neck races, picking the winners is harder than ever.

But I’m going to give it a shot!

I’m also going to reveal what the majority of YOU think is going to win!  Last night we closed our official Producer’s Perspective Tony Pool with a record number of players!  We had well into the THOUSANDS of entries!  Woo-woo!  And one of those lucky contestants is going to win an iPad!

So here goes . . . here are my predictions for this year’s Tony Awards, and yours (along with the percentage that made up the majority so you can see how tight the race is).  Remember, these are not “should win” . . . they are “will win” predictions.

Here goes:

1.  Best Sound Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Robert Kaplowitz (Fela!)

Your Prediction:  Robert Kaplowitz (Fela!) – 36.3%

The Sound Design award is one of the newest Tonys we have, so it’s even harder to predict what the voters will do.  I’m with you . . . Fela’s music was so unique, so its sound had to be as well.

2.  Best Sound Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Acme Sound Partners (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Adam Cork (Enron) – 31.1%

Sorry guys, I don’t think enough of the voters saw Enron to make it a winner.  I’m going with what I call ‘Tony by Association’ and giving the award to Acme for Fences.  The sound at Fences was terrific, but the votes that will put it over the top are for the show as much as they are for the sound.

3.  Best Lighting Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Kevin Adams (American Idiot)

Your Prediction:  Kevin Adams (American Idiot) – 57.3%

The lighting in Idiot is amazing . . . but Adams also benefits from the cool projection designs that voters probably lump into the same category (even though he didn’t do them).  And that begs the questions . . . with video and projections a part of more and more shows every year . . . will we see a Projection or Video Design Tony soon?

4.  Best Lighting Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Neil Austin (Red)

Your Prediction:   Neil Austin (Red) – 43.1%

Ironically, I think Neil is going to get this award for the brilliant lack of lighting used in an early scene of this play.  For those of you who haven’t seen the show, there is a incredible display of the contrast between theatrical lighting and stark work-light early on that makes you realize just how talented all lighting designers are, and Neil will get a trophy for helping teach us that lesson.

5.  Best Costume Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Matthew Wright (La Cage)

Your Prediction:   Matthew Wright (La Cage) – 69.6%

Making men pretty has a high degree of difficulty and my readers and I agree, that’s worth a Tony.

6.  Best Costume Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Catherine Zuber (The Royal Family)

Your Prediction:   Catherine Zuber (The Royal Family) – 43%

When in doubt, go with the period piece.  Zuber’s work is always beautiful, and she’ll snag another Tony for her work on Family.

7.  Best Scenic Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Christine Jones (American Idiot)

Your Prediction:  Christine Jones (American Idiot) – 50.1%

When American Idiot was steamrolling into town, I don’t think anyone thought it would be cleaning up the design awards, but you and I agree that this’ll be the second Tony for the rock opera so far.  But with the strange lack of nominations for Idiot in other categories (Orchestrations anyone?  Direction?), could the design awards be the only awards that Idiot wins?

8.  Best Scenic Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Christoper Oram (Red)

Your Prediction:  Christopher Oram (Red) – 33.2%

You all weren’t so sure about this one, with 33.2% making up the majority.  I’m not sure either.  Part of me wants to say Fences again, but ultimately, I think the title of the play, Red, screams design elements, which will help Chris grab an award for his cool way of putting canvases on stage.

9.  Best Orchestrations

My Prediction:  Daryl Waters and David Bryan (Memphis)

Your Prediction:  Daryl Waters and David Bryan (Memphis) – 42.2%

No contest here.  The only original score grabs the orchestration award.

10.  Best Choreography

My Prediction:  Twyla Tharp (Come Fly Away)

Your Prediction:  Bill T. Jones (Fela!) – 44.2%

Oh, readers, we were seeing eye to eye for so long.  We differ on this one.  This is where I think Tony voters like to spread the love around.  Come Fly Away won’t get honored in any other categories on Tony night, so Twyla will be given the category that makes the most sense for the show . . . and she deserves it.  Just how in the heck does she get bodies to move like that anyway?  Don’t feel bad for Bill.  His love is coming.

11.  Best Direction of a Musical

My Prediction:  Bill T. Jones (Fela!)

Your Prediction:  Terry Johnson (La Cage) – 41.9%

Terry did brilliant work in making this production of La Cage stand out not only from the recent revival, but also from all previous productions of the show.  But I think the voters will want to make sure Fela! gets recognized, and this is how they’ll do it.

12.  Best Direction of a Play

 

My Prediction:  Kenny Leon (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Michael Grandage (Red) – 32.8%

For a long time, I was with you all.  I was giving it to Grandage as well, but I flip-flopped and am predicting Leon will have new hardware for his mantle after Sunday night, partly because of the amazing performances in Fences, and partly because of the body of his Wilson work, and the fact that he has never won before.

13.  Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

 

My Prediction:  Katie Finneran (Promises, Promises)

Your Prediction:  Katie Finneran (Promises, Promises) – 43.3%

I think we’d all love to see Angela get a 6th award, but how can we not give this one to Katie Finneran? You know how they added songs for this revival that weren’t in the original?  After seeing Katie’s scene, I couldn’t help but wish they had written a new scene for her at the end of the second act!

14.  Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

My Prediction:  Robin de Jesus (La Cage)

Your Prediction:  Bobby Steggert (Ragtime) – 23.2%

Only 1.9% separated three of the nominees in your choices for the winner of this tight category.  While a lot of folks are pulling for Bobby to pull it out, at the end of the day, I just don’t think enough voters caught his Younger Brother.  So, I’m going with the scene-stealing de Jesus.

15.  Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

My Prediction:  Scarlett Johansson (A View from the Bridge)

Your Prediction:  Scarlett Johansson (A View from the Bridge) – 36%

Only 36% of you think Scarlett’s going to take this one?  I’m shocked, cuz this one is a lock.  Give it to the girl, already.

16.  Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

My Prediction:  Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)

 

Your Prediction:  Eddie Redmayne (Red) – 31.4%

Tough, tough category, but I think Fences will get a hat trick of performance awards on Sunday, with this being the first (see below for the other two).

17.  Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

 

My Prediction:  Catherine Zeta-Jones (A Little Night Music)

Your Prediction:  Catherine Zeta-Jones (A Little Night Music) – 38.3%

Zeta seems right to me, but there has been a lot of buzz about Montego lately. This could be a big upset, in the style of Idina over co-star Kristin Chenoweth in 2004.  I picked Kristin then, and I’m picking Zeta now, just like you.

18.  Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

My Prediction:  Douglas Hodge (La Cage)

Your Prediction:  Douglas Hodge (La Cage) – 47.7%

The range of how this role is written certainly helped Hodge seal his Tony fate, but he plays every inch of that range to perfection.

19.  Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

My Prediction:  Viola Davis (Fences)

 

Your Prediction:  Viola Davis (Fences) – 55.3%

Even more of you think Viola is going to win than Denzel!  And she will.

20.  Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

My Prediction:  Denzel Washington (Fences)

 

Your Prediction:  Denzel Washington (Fences) – 41.5%

What a freekin’ category.  Walken, Washington, Law, Schreiber and Molina? Come on.  It’s like actor heaven.  I sort of feel these guys should be treated like the President and the Vice President and not be allowed in the same location for too long in case something happens to one or the other.  Despite the competition, Denzel will take the trophy, partly for being snubbed years ago for his performance in Caesar. He has returned, and he kicked acting a$$ in the process.  And the hat trick I spoke of earlier is now complete.

21.  Best Original Score

My Prediction: Fences 

Just kidding, just kidding.  That was a joke.  Sort of like the two play nominations that rounded out this category.

My Prediction

:  David Bryan & Joe DiPietro (

Memphis)

Your Prediction:  David Bryan & Joe DiPietro (

Memphis) – 74.7%

Rumor has it that David Bryan is missing a Bon Jovi concert to be at the awards. I think he picked the right day to play hookey, and so did you.  I can’t wait to hear his acceptance speech.

22.  Best Book of a Musical

My Prediction:  Dick Scanlan and Sherie Rene Scott (Everyday Rapture)

Your Prediction:  Joe DiPietro (Memphis) – 41.3%

You’ve got a point, readers. You’ve got a point. Memphis is a traditional book musical.  DiPietro is loved by everyone in the biz. But so is Sherie, and I think since DiPietro will have some other trophies to play with after Sunday, this one will surprise everyone and go to Sherie and Dick.

23.  Best Revival of a Play

My Prediction:  Fences

Your Prediction:  Fences – 61%

I hate to see Bridge lose, because I loved it so, but Fences was an event that demands to be rewarded.

24.  Best Revival of a Musical

My Prediction:  La Cage aux Folles

Your Prediction:  La Cage aux Folles – 64.6%

Yet another reason why I wished I would have produced this one is that it’s gonna win the Tony.

25.  Best Play

My Prediction:  Red

Your Prediction:  Red – 53%

Tony voters like “smart” plays, and Red qualifies.  It’s so smart, it even feels British, doesn’t it?  Yet it was written by a guy who grew up in Jersey.  My money is on him bringing that Tony back home to Jersey Monday morning.

26.  Best Musical

My Prediction:  Memphis

Your Prediction:  Memphis – 47.8%

You know what was interesting about your predictions?  47.8% (the majority) picked Memphis.  Second place at 29.6% was NOT American Idiot.  It was Fela!Idiot came in third at 19.3%.  It seems that no matter how many folks like Idiot, they also don’t think it represents the type of musical that gets awarded on Tony night . . .and I have to agree.  Memphis feels like the big Broadway musical that voters like to pin their badge of approval on.

Well there it is.  Another year of predictions.  I promise I’ll let you know the winner of the pool and the iPad by Wednesday of next week at the latest, so stay tuned.  I also promise to give you my score as well, no matter how humiliating.

For those of you who want to play in another pool, make sure you come to my Tony Party on Sunday night.  We’re giving away a Nintendo Wii to whomever wins that pool!  Click here to reserve before it’s sold out.

But wherever you are . . . Enjoy Tony night!  And make sure you tell everyone you know to tune in. Let’s see what we can do about these ratings, shall we?

My predictions for the 2.5 big Tony Award nominations.

It seems like just yesterday we were debating who would get snubbed in the 2008-2009 Tony noms (remember when Rock of Ages slipped in instead of 9 to 5?) . . . And already, it’s time to predict this year’s snubs!

Conventional Broadway wisdom says that there are only 2.5 Tony Awards that have a meaningful impact at the Box Office:  Best Musical, Best Play . . . and the half goes to Best Revival of a Musical.

So, I’m going to give you my predictions on what I think will be nominated for those 2.5 categories (as opposed to what I think should be nominated).

Best Musical

IMHO, there are three locks for the Best Musical nom this year:

American Idiot
Fela!

And the only completely original musical of the season . . .

Memphis

It’s the fourth slot that there’s some fighting over, especially since this season saw the elimination of the Special Theatrical Event category, which lumps at least four other titles into the Best Musical category.

So who will take the slot?

The two front runners are The Addams Family and Come Fly Away, with Everyday Rapture the next-in-line long shot.  My guess is that the Tony Committee will honor Rapture by nominating it’s star for Best Actress and maybe even Best Book, but they’ll leave it out of this category, which puts us back with the two choices that started this paragraph.

If I were one of the nominators sitting The Edison Cafe making the decision, I’d go with Addams Family solely to reward the original score and the original book over the beautifully danced, but is-it-really-a-musical, Come Fly Away.  You’ve got to give some points to Family for degree of difficulty, don’t you?

But, knowing what I do about the nominators and the process by which they choose these nominees, my gut says that they will nominate Come Fly Away, and for the third year in a row, snub the big, commercial choice (First Legally Blonde, then 9 To 5, and now Addams Family).

Best Play

Expect the biggest hit, A Steady Rain, to get a steady snub in this category.

Red is a shoe-in for a nod.  As is Next Fall.  The next two spots could go a bunch of different ways.  You’ve got the Brit hit, Enron, Mamet’s f’ing Race, and Superior Donuts, the follow-up play by the man who penned the biggest dramatic epic that we’ve seen since Angels in America.  And what about The Chris Walken show aka Behanding in Spokane, the buzzed about Vibrator Play, or the timely Time Stands Still?

I’m going with Time for the third slot.  And the fourth?

Tricky again . . . I’d like to say that it will be Donuts . . . but taking into account that nominators tend to forget the Fall (as we found out last year), I’m going to go with Enron (partly because bigger really is sometimes better in the eyes of nominators and voters).

Best Revival of a Musical

Sondheim will get another bday present with a nom for Night Music.  La Cage will get the second slot, and Ragtime will get the thanks-for-trying third nom.

But what about the fourth?  Finian’s or Promises?  Great reviewed versus great box office?  Fall versus Spring?

Put my money on Promises.

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Whew.  That was tough.  Thankfully, I’m only picking 2.5 of them.

The nominators are picking 26, and they’ll do it tomorrow.

On Tuesday, at 8:30 AM ET, the nominations will be announced live.  Watch on the web at TonyAwards.com.

But before then, tell me how you think I did with my choices in the comments below.

What do you think will get nominated?

5 Reasons why we shouldn’t have gotten rid of Special Theatrical Event this season.

Immediately following last year’s Tony Awards, the Admin Committee decided to strike the “Special Theatrical Event” Tony from the list of trophies that it would hand out in the future.

The Special Event kudos was created following the bizarre Best Musical win in 2000 for Susan Stroman’s dance piece, Contact, which lacked an original score and a live orchestra (and was even billed as a “dance play”).

I wrote about my disappointment over the demise of this category when it happened.  Now, almost a season later, I’ve come up with five more reasons why the Special Event should have stuck around.

Those five reasons are:

1.  Wishful Drinking

2.  Burn The Floor

3.  All About Me

4.  Come Fly Away

5.  Sondheim on Sondheim

(And could Fela! have lobbied for Special Event, rather than try and go up against Addams Family or American Idiot?  It would have lost the lobby, but it would have been interesting.)

While I understand the theory of cutting the category, I’m not sure I understand why it couldn’t continue on an “as needed” basis.  Surely there was enough “specialness” this year to warrant at least three nominations and one trophy.  Otherwise, is it really fair for Wishful Drinking to have to compete against Enron for a nomination for Best Play?  And what about the reverse?  If Come Fly Away pulls a Contact and gets nominated for Best Musical (despite using Frank Sinatra vocals and being primarily a dance piece), another more conventional and maybe even original musical may get snubbed.  I know if I were a producer of a snubbed original, I’d be pretty peeved.  And this specific example could very well happen, as I hear Fly Away is fantastic.  I smell trouble, with a capital T and that stands for Tony.

If the Admin Committee does really want to do away with the category, there is another way to prevent the above nightmare from happening.

Expand the number of nominees for Best Musical when needed, as I discussed here.

Awards are about celebrating our community’s artistic achievement first, and about marketing second.  I’m not sure how setting this amount of artistry aside accomplishes either.

Ken Davenport
Ken Davenport

Tony Award-Winning Broadway Producer

I'm on a mission to help 5000 shows get produced by 2025.

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