Who won Will It Recoup? Contest and Kindle Winner Announced!

Seems like just yesterday we were all freezing our spotlights off and picking the shows we thought would make money in this year’s Will It Recoup!  (If you aren’t familiar with our game, click here for the original post).

While the accounting statements may not be finalized yet, I think it’s pretty safe to say that there were three shows out of the ten in the field that recouped:

That Championship Season
Ghetto Klown
The Mother with the Hat

So first, a big congrats to Broadway for the 30% success rate.  Not so bad, in this era of rising costs, wouldn’t you say?

And a second congrats to reader Nick Coltone who scored a 100% in this year’s contest!  Nick, you gotta start investing and producing shows because you’ve got an eye for the ones that work.  Just imagine what you could have done if you had some real skin in the game. 🙂

Nick, drop me an email, and we’ll drop you a Kindle in the mail.

And the rest of you, there’s always next year.  Or maybe even this fall.  We’re thinking about rolling out a fall version of Will It Recoup. What do you think?

But before we do that, back to the 30% success rate, which is pretty consistent with what the industry says is the average number of shows that recoup per year.

That’s actually pretty decent in a high risk industry in my opinion.

But that’s not what gets me excited.

If 30% is the average, then doesn’t it make sense that with education, research and market analysis, an individual should be able to do better than that?  Doesn’t that mean that you should be able to pick winners 40% of the time?  50%?  Or even more?

I’d bet yes.

 

(Got a comment?  I love ’em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

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FUN STUFF

– 79 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

– Win 2 tickets to Hair on Broadway, and tell us what you think about nudity in theater. Click here!

 

A Will It Recoup Update. How is Broadway doing this Spring?

You forgot about this contest, didn’t you?

Back in February, we launched our second ‘Will It Recoup’ fantasy Broadway investment game and put a Kindle on the line.

The name of the game says it all (just like the name of your show should reflect exactly what your show is about).  It’s your job to pick the winners from the floppers in the Spring season.

So how are you (and the Broadway Producers) doing so far?

Here’s what we know and what we don’t:

A View from the Bridge: RECOUPED!
The Miracle Worker: Did NOT recoup.
A Behanding in Spokane: Did NOT recoup.
Next Fall: Did NOT recoup.
Looped: Did NOT recoup.
Red: RECOUPED!
Lend Me A Tenor: Too soon to tell.
Fences: RECOUPED!
Enron:  Did NOT recoup.

So that makes a total of 3 Broadway shows out of 9 that have recouped already. That’s a pretty bountiful Spring, considering the statistical average is 1 out of 5 (although it is certainly not a coinky-dink that two of the three shows that have recouped featured Hollywood mega-stars Denzel Washington and Scarlett Johansson).

Still, the game is not over.  We’ve still got one show on the fence.  We could have quite a good year if it falls into the win column.

How are you doing?

Well, there are 27 of you who picked those three shows to recoup, and the five shows that did not.  27 of you are still in the money!

So…it all comes down to Lend Me a Tenor.

See you in August!

A fancy “futures” version of “Will It Recoup?” for Hollywood.

Cantor Fitzgerald is betting that there are a lot of people that want to be a part of the movie biz.

Last week, the New York Times announced that the financial firm is in the final stages of approval for a futures exchange on the success (or lack thereof) of Hollywood movies.

Here’s how it’ll work:

Think the new Will Ferrell movie will bring in $100 million during its opening weekend?  Buy a $100 million contract for 100 bucks.  If it does $150 million? You make $50.  If it does $50 million?  You lose $50.

Fun, right?  CF has been testing the potential interest in this market on its faux site, HSX.com, which allows you to play fantasy Hollywood with fantasy dollars. Check it out here.

Obviously the test went well, because they are proceeding full speed ahead and expect regulatory clearance on their actual exchange on April 20th.

The execs at CF expect participation from studios (a hedge against their own films?), institutions, and movie lovers who want who want to put their money where their mouth is. As Richard Jaycobs, the president of Cantor Exchange said, “I’ve worked in the futures industry for a long time and none of the products has the overall appeal that this does.  This just has a tremendous potential audience.”

Think we can get them to create a Broadway Futures Exchange next?

I’d put my money where my e-mouth is that there’s a tremendous potential audience for Broadway investment involvement as well . . . it’s just that most people don’t know how to be involved.

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Until they do create that exchange, we’ve got ‘Will It Recoup’ . . . and to give you a quick update, we did put one in the YES column when A View From The Bridge announced.  Other than that, it’s still anyone’s game (although there are a few shows out there that are unfortunately already on the brink).

What do you think will recoup this year? Survey results revealed!

Game on!

We had a record number of entries to this Spring’s “Will It Recoup” contest.  This year’s players included some of Broadway’s biggest players, as well as high school students, regional theater directors, folks from overseas and more.  It’s quite a collection of handicappers . . . but just like Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest, there can only be one winner.

Who will it be?

We’ve got some time before the Kindle winner is revealed, so until then I thought we’d take a look at what the majority of you thought.

Below are the results of how all of you voted on each show’s recoupment chances:

A View From The Bridge
87.9% It WILL recoup
12.1% It will NOT recoup

The Miracle Worker
44.3% It WILL recoup
55.7% It will NOT recoup

A Behanding in Spokane
36.6% It WILL recoup
63.4% It will NOT recoup

Next Fall
27.8% It WILL recoup
72.2% It will NOT recoup

Looped
20.8% It WILL recoup
79.2% It will NOT recoup

Red
24.3% It WILL recoup
75.7% It will NOT recoup

Lend Me A Tenor
49.3% It WILL recoup
50.7% It will NOT recoup

Fences
72.6% It WILL recoup
27.4% It will NOT recoup

Enron
46.5% It WILL recoup
53.5% It will NOT recoup

So, according to the majority of you, there will be TWO recoupers in this lot of nine, A View From The Bridge and Fences.  Those two winners would put us slightly ahead of our industry standard recoupment rate of 1 out of 5 shows.  Sounds like a safe, star-driven bet to me.

Then again, the majority picked 33 Variations to recoup last year, and thought that God of Carnage was going to be a financial bomb.  😉  Don’t feel so bad. I produced Oleanna this year, remember?

What do I think?  I think there’s a good shot at getting three shows into the black this Spring . . . which would put us at 3 out of 9.

And that’s a pretty dang good batting average for any business.

Stay tuned to the blog for updates as the season goes on, and good luck to all the players!

And even better luck to all the actual Producers.

Wanna see a couple of Producers get naked? Here’s how.

Either this blog will turn into one of my most read entries because of the title, or the title will conjure up images of a naked David Merrick or Florenz Ziegfeld and make people want to throw up all over the keyboards.

But I’m not talking about Merrick or Ziegfeld.

I’m talking about Julie and Martha.

Julie and Martha are two of the Producers of David Stallings’s Barrier Island, which opens April 30th. These two flirtin’ fundraisers have taken to a little game they came up with called Producer Off, that’s bound to raise a few eyebrows and some bucks at the same time.

It’s simple.  There are photos of each Producer online.  For each chunk of cash that each Producer raises through online donations, the OTHER Producer has to take off a piece of clothing, take a new photo, and put it on the web for all the world (and their mothers) to see.

It’s fun, competitive, and also pretty safe (a few quick calculations will reveal that the ladies are wearing enough accoutrements to never have to reveal too much of what’s underneath (oven mitts?)).

But that won’t prevent Julie and Martha from getting attention from people who had never heard of them before, and donations from people who never would have donated to their cause before.

In fact, I contributed some cash to both of their accounts.

But I did it to support their risk-taking, get-the-money-at-all-costs, out-of-the-box, passion for the theater.

Yeah. Yeah. That’s why I did it.

To see Julie and Martha, click here.

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PLAY “WILL IT RECOUP” TODAY!  WIN A KINDLE! Only 2 days left!

Click here to play!

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